Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Thur. 6-22-2012
Posted on Jun 21st, 2012 07:03 AM

Not that it really matters, but I wonder how what the Rockies decided to do yesterday will affect their pitcher’s prices going forward. If you know that a certain team has a pitch count roughly equivalent to 70% of the rest of the pitchers on any given day, it should logically decrease their prices. Although, I guess as the innings decrease, the scores will decrease and it will take care of itself. Not that their prices could get much lower.

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Colorado @ Philadelphia 7:05 ET

J.Francis: The big news in the pitching world yesterday was that the Rockies have gone to a 4 man rotation with a 75 pitch pitch-count. Personally, I think that’s a little abusive. I mean making a Colorado pitcher stay in the game for 75 pitches? They haven’t done that all year.

V.Worley: My previous inclination was to avoid Worley as often as possible due to the condition he’s forced to pitch with for the rest of the season (bone chips in elbow). However, that seems to be a thing that does not bother him much, or at least if it does, it hasn’t shown in his performance. The one strange side effect is that he seems to allow 3 runs in every game whether they are earned or not (only 1 ER last 13 IP). Additionally you factor in that it’s tough to be picky sometimes on these short days and that Colorado has only had one good inning in the first 4 games of this road trip and Worley seems like one of your better options today. Good Value

INTER-LEAGUE

St Louis @ Detroit 1:05 ET

K.Lohse: I’m not sure I understand what’s going on here. Kyle Lohse is an average pitcher at best and probably slightly below average really. The Tigers have not scored less than 4 runs in their last 6 games, are the 5th best hitting team in the majors vs RHP, and 9th best hitting team in the majors over the last 7 days. So why does Lohse have sport an average price tag in most places?

J.Turner: Turner makes the 4th start of his career and 1st appearance of 2012 against the best hitting team in the majors (by wRC+) in front of the worst defense in the majors (by UZR). In addition, the only thing he’s excelled at in the AAA this year has been keeping the ball in the park. He’s allowed 2 HR’s all season, but has only a 1.42 K/BB. Good luck with that.

Los Angeles (NL) @ Oakland 3:35 ET

C.Kershaw: As tempting as this is, I think I’m going to avoid Kershaw today. He’s come back to bite me too many times lately. He hasn’t been bad, but not worth his price. SIERA still loves him because he keeps striking out batters (19 K last 55 BF), but he’s allowed at least 3 ER’s in each of his last 4 starts, without going past 7 innings without a particularly bad spot in the bunch. That’s not elite level production, when you’re paying an elite price. So just watch today as he goes out and likely dominates a hot hitting Oakland lineup now that I’ve said that.

T.Blackley: Honestly, I’d love just about anyone Oakland threw out on the mound against the Dodgers today for this price. Blackley’s allowed 1 HR in 31.1 IP this season and I’d be shocked if the Dodgers took him deep here. He doesn’t strike out many, but won’t walk many either and L.A. desperately needs Matt Kemp back in that lineup. Top Value

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh 7:05 ET

L.Hendriks: Hendriks only allowed 2 ER’s in his last start, but not really because he gave up 3 HR’s. I mean I understand that a pitcher is not at fault if his team makes an error that allows runs to score, but they should be penalized for allowing HR’s somehow. Hendricks has now faced 108 batters this year and allowed 8 HR’s. Additionally, opposing batters have a massive line drive rate against him. To say this another way…..he’s not good. I wonder if you combined the Twins and Rockies, if you’d have some semblance of a starting rotation? Possibly if you had a pitcher from each team throw off of one mound at the same time and didn’t tell the batter which pitch counted. Otherwise, no.

J.McDonald: McDonald suddenly seems to have lost the strikeout pitch with just 20 in his last 4 starts. That’s not terrible and his K% is still above average in those starts, but not the elite rate he was putting up previously. Additionally, everything seems to be in the air lately. Not that he was much of a ground ball pitcher to begin with, but he has a 0.73 GB/FB with 28 fly balls and only 1 infield fly in his last 3 starts, in which he hasn’t gone past the 6th inning once. Again, not a disaster, but not a bargain at his current price.

Tampa Bay @ Washington 7:05 ET

M.Moore: While Mike Trout may have squashed any ROY dreams he had, Matt Moore has quietly gotten back on track and been pretty close to what he all expected when the season started. Not only is he striking batters out at a high clip (24.1% for the year now and at least 8 in 4 of last 6), but he hasn’t allowed more than 3 line drives in a start in over a month. I wouldn’t be as concerned about his road numbers since 9 of his last 11 have been in Tampa and this is quite an enviable spot for him. Good Value

G.Gonzalez: Gonzalez has been a little shakier in recent starts, although he still has only allowed 1 HR on the year and did strike out 8 in his last start, but overall, his last 3 look like this: 17 IP – 15 H – 8 ER – 0 HR – 7 BB – 18 K – 73 BF. Good…..but not great.

Miami @ Boston 7:10 ET

C.Zambrano: 4.1 IP – 8 H – 11 ER – 1 HR – 9 BB – 4 K – 30 BF in his last 2 starts. The only thing missing is one of his famous temper tantrums.

D.Matsuzaka: It’s been kind of mixed bag since Matsuzaka returned. The better of his 2 starts (8 K – 1 BB) seemed to be the one in which he allowed more runs.

*Top Values Thursday: Travis Blackley

Good Values: Matt Moore,Vance Worley

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Clayton Kershaw, Moore, Gio Gonzalez

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

That’s more than you might expect out of a day with 6 games total and none of them were even forced. 


 

 
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