Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Sat. 7-7-2012
Posted on Jul 7th, 2012 05:27 AM

The only game that starts before 4pm ET is the 1st game of the Yankees/Red Sox double header which doesn’t seem to be factored into the daily fantasy equation on most sites today so we’ll omit it and hope we have the order of starting pitchers correct for the 2nd game. (Even if it’s not, you rarely want to jump on pitching when these 2 teams meet as they proved Friday night.) Lastly, I’d like to thank Patrick who did a great job filling in for me on Friday.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Remember to check updated wind conditions and weather reports throughout the day. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis?

None From The Top

Well this is certainly a first, but every one of the highly priced pitchers has either had some issues lately or is facing a hot offense. Considering we’re just about to hit the All Star break and haven’t had this occur before, I don’t see it becoming a frequent issue.

Two From The Middle

J.Blanton: Blanton’s 5.93 K/BB is 2nd in the majors this season. The problem has been that when hitters know it’s going to be over the plate, sometimes it’s easier for them to tee off on the fat ones. As a result, Blanton has allowed 19 HR’s this season. However, he’s kept 3 of his last 4 opponents to just 1 HR and 3 ER’s or less and has struck out at least 6 in each of his last 6 starts. There’s always the chance that Blanton can blow up, but you know he’s good for the peripherals and has already dominated this lineup for a 3 hit shutout once in 2012. Good Value

C.Billingsley: Arizona hits well at home, but really hasn’t been during their current home stand. Billingsley’s been decent lately and doesn’t cost much. Although he’s allowed 3 ER’s in 6 IP in each of his last 2 starts, he’s struck out 15 of 56 batters in those starts. He’s struck out 7 or 8 in 6 of his last 9. HR’s and BB’s which have occasionally plagued him haven’t been much of a problem either lately. It comes down to a .339 BABIP that’s 34 points above his career level. The even odder thing about that is that the Dodgers have one of the best defenses in the majors, which makes it seem even flukier. Good Value

Two From The Bottom

H.Bailey: Throw out San Diego’s recent offensive surge. That’s all come on the road in the best hitter’s parks in the NL. They’ve scored 2 runs in their first 2 games back home in this series now. Bailey’s road struggles have more or less disappeared as he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in any of his last 5 away from Cincinnati with a 4.17 K/BB over that span. Top Value

*Top Values for Saturday: Homer Bailey

Good Values: Joe Blanton, Chad Billingsley

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver, Gio Gonazlez, Bailey, Blanton

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

Yeah, it’s really thin today. Maybe some of these pitchers can really use the upcoming break.

 
 
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