Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Analysis April 21 2012
Posted on Apr 21st, 2012 11:04 AM
Starting Pitcher Analysis April 21 2012

There’s a lot of day baseball today so excuse the briefness of some of the entries. You’ll notice several new columns on the chart this week as some new pitcher, defensive, and opposing team offensive stats have been incorporated. A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here.

Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. Park Run Factors are courtesy of parkfactors.com. Remember to check updated wind conditions and weather reports throughout the day. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis?


Texas @ Detroit 1:05 ET (see yesterday for 1st game pitchers)

N.Feliz: He’s been just ok so far from a peripherals standpoint, but is priced a little better than that.

J.Verlander: If I were ever going to consider a pitcher against Texas…….but with so many top pitchers on Saturday’s board, there are safer ways of spending for elite arms today.

Chicago (AL) @ Seattle 4:05 ET

P.Humber: Just 1 start, but it was very good and he remains on the lower half the board, perhaps even the bottom third due to all the talent going today. At his best price he should be a great buy, at his worst he drops down to good. Top Value (price conditional)

B.Beavan: I don’t know how he does it, but his Home numbers are pretty ugly even in that park.

New York (AL) @ Boston 4:05 ET

F.Garcia: Absolutely not.

F.Doubront: No way.

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay 7:10 ET

C.Pavano: There are better options than his mediocrity today.

J.Shields: This is close as he’s almost always a lock for at least 7 innings, but the Twins continue to hit. The price is probably accurate, but you could do worse.

Toronto @ Kansas City 7:10 ET

D.Hutchison: The extent of my knowledge on Mr. Hutchison comes from this fangraphs.com article I read yesterday. He’s 21 and, although a decent prospect, has only 6 starts above A-ball. Odds are he’s probably not even available on your site anyway.

L.Mendoza: You might want to stack Toronto today.

Baltimore @ Los Angeles (AL) 9:05 ET

J.Arrieta: He’s been good (4 K/BB) and it’s reasonably priced. The Angel bats are beginning to come out of their slumber, so there’s some risk, but if you’re looking to combine a pricier pitcher with a cheaper one…. Sleeper Alert

J.Weaver: His peripherals are so much better than last season and he’s only either 3rd or 4th on the board today. He might be your best bet for K’s, but I’m just a little concerned about HR potential (Orioles 3rd in ML w 22 HR and Weaver pronounced flyball pitcher) which might keep him from being the best option. His opponents thus far: KC, Minn, Oak all in pitcher’s parks. Good Value

Cleveland @ Oakland 9:05 ET

J.Gomez: The 2nd Cleveland starter to be suspended this season and we’re not even through April yet. He’s only pitched 4 innings this year and has struck out 3 of 13 batters faced, so you might want to take some of those numbers in the chart with a grain of salt, but it’s Oakland so this should be yet another low priced option to partner with your stud. Good Value

B.McCarthy: Right smack in the middle, which is probably exactly where he belongs today.


Cincinnati @ Chicago (NL) 1:05 ET

M.Leake: He hasn’t been getting it done this year, but neither have the Cubs. It’s almost tempting, but not enough.

P.Maholm: The Reds are awake.

Miami @ Washington 1:05 ET

A.Sanchez: If you’ve been following this month, you know I’ve supported him strongly every time out. I still like him and his price is reasonable today, bordering the top third. He should be a safe option to get the job done against an unimpressive offense. Good Value

S.Strasburg: He’s only made it past 6 and struck out more than 5 once. His peripherals are still great as he’s not allowing base runners, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t rack up the fantasy points today. It might just be really good instead of dominant. My concern is more quantity than quality.

San Francisco @ New York (NL) 1:10 ET

R.Vogelsong: Ehh….not today.

M.Pelfrey: 2 of the 3 conditions necessary to consider Pelfrey are present. He’s at home against a non-divisional opponent. Unfortunately the game is being played during the day.

Los Angeles @ Houston 7:05 ET

C.Kershaw: This is the guy I’m looking at among the elite today. It’s almost all green above and he sits as low as 5th on the board on some sites. Even in his rough last outing, 12 of 19 batted were on the ground. Top Value

K.Weiland: DON’T PITCH TO KEMP!!! But they’ll probably pitch to Kemp.

St Louis @ Pittsburgh 7:05 ET

J.Westbrook: Resides a little too high up for comfort, despite the quality of opponent, which is really the only reason.

K.Correia: The offense may be less intimidating without Berkman, but should still be formidable enough to easily handle Correia.

Colorado @ Milwaukee 7:10 ET

D.Pomeranz: His 1st start wasn’t all that impressive.

C.Narveson: Now I read it’s probably not even going to be him, but Marco Estrada instead. It’s too late to change the chart and it probably doesn’t matter. If he’s available on your site, realize he’s coming in from the pen and not stretched to go very long.

Atlanta @ Arizona 8:10 ET

T.Hanson: Arizona is missing key bats and he may be your best bet for non-elite priced K’s sitting firmly at #7 on Saturday’s board. He labored in his last start and has only struck out more than 4 in 1 out of 3 this year, so it’s not without risk. He just misses the cut.

J.Saunders: He’s going to get lit up sooner or later. Now his price tag is even beginning to increase and the Braves have smoked D’Back pitching in 2 straight.

Philadelphia @ San Diego 8:35 ET

R.Halladay: It’s a question of affordability. This may be the highest price you see all year. He pretty much has to go 8 shutout innings with at least a K per inning to break even, which is probably what’ll happen, but it really hampers the rest of your options. Not assured of a W here either with that offense backing him up.

C.Luebke: Lessened a bit where you need the W, but his last start in Colorado was nearly dominant (15 GB, 1 BB, 4 K, 27 BF). This is a great spot at a reasonable price. Top Value

*Top Values for Saturday: Clayton Kershaw, Cory Luebke, Philip Humber (price conditional)

Good Values: Jered Weaver, Jeanmar Gomez, Anibal Sanchez

Sleeper Alert: Jake Arietta

Top Draft Targets: Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Weaver, Luebke, Stephen Strasburg, Sanchez

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.