Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Tue. 6-12-2012
Posted on Jun 12th, 2012 01:12 AM

Lucky scheduling this week allows most games to escape some ugly weather on the East Coast….again. And some that would otherwise be affected are being played in domes. It seems the story of the year though. Most of your best pitching comes from the West Coast though on Tuesday, specifically the lone National League game. We kicked off several new promotions on Monday. If you missed the announcements, check out the forum for details.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


INTER-LEAGUE

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore 7:05 ET

B.Lincoln: Lincoln’s line in 2 starts: 10 IP – 10 H – 7 ER – 2 HR – 3 BB – 8 K – 43 BF – 0.41 GB/FB. The conversion to an extreme fly ball pitcher out of nowhere in his 2 starts is a bit concerning in this park despite the great struggles of the Baltimore offense recently.

W.Chen: Chen, also an extreme fly ball pitcher, is worrisome at home despite the low ERA.

Washington @ Toronto 7:07 ET

C.Wang: Wang hasn’t been very good in his 2 starts this season.

H.Alvarez: As I keep saying, there’s very little fantasy value in a pitcher that you can’t expect more than a strikeout or 2 from (season high of 4), but his price is creeping low enough to nearly make it interesting.

Boston @ Miami 7:10 ET

C.Buchholz: Buchholz seems to be back on track with 3 excellent outings in a row (24 IP – 18 H – 4 ER – 2 HR – 4 BB – 19 K – 92 BF). This is a decent spot for him, but his price has really shot up on some sites. He is an option if you can find him in the middle rather than in the top third.

M.Buehrle: Obligatory repetitive statement about how Buehrle does good work, but is rarely fantasy relevant. The one positive is that he seems to have a floor above zero as he’s allowed 4 earned runs 4 times in 12 starts this year, but never more. So if you really, desperately needed someone just to hold the fort for some reason……

Cleveland @ Cincinnati 7:10 ET

J.Gomez: 17 ER in 15.2 IP over last 3 starts.

J.Cueto: Cueto has almost evolved into a pitcher similar to Buehrle (fantasy wise) with a slightly little higher ceiling, but also slightly lower floor. Regard in his last 5 starts, he’s gone 7 innings with 3 earned runs or less and 5 or more strikeouts 3 times, but less than 5 innings with at least 5 earned runs and 3 strikeouts or less twice.

New York (AL) @ Atlanta 7:10 ET

C.Sabathia: Sabathia has gone exactly 7 innings in 4 straight starts, allowing exactly 3 earned runs in 3 of them (2 in the other). He becomes more attractive facing a pitcher instead of a DH, but comes with a sufficient price tag on Tuesday. Very close.

M.Minor: Minor allowed less than 4 ER’s for the 1st time in 7 starts last time out through no fault of his own. He walked 5 and allowed a solo HR in his 5 innings of work.

New York (NL) @ Tampa Bay 7:10 ET

C.Young: Probably not a good idea right now. He’s not even all that cheap on some sites.

A.Cobb: Cobb’s most recent starts have not been all that impressive, but his last 3 have all come against teams in the top 7 wRC+ in the majors. The Mets are a very middling offense on a cold streak. Cobb isn’t exactly cheap as you would hope considering recent results either, but may be a viable option if you find him on the lower half of your board.

Arizona @ Texas 8:05 ET

I.Kennedy: Ian Kennedy has been fantastic in his last 2 starts (13.2 IP – 10 H – 2 ER – 0 HR – 3 BB – 19 K – 53 BF). That was against somewhat inferior NL West competition though. It all seems to suggest that he might not get destroyed against a Texas team that has had its struggles lately, but it’s a big risk to take at his current price.

C.Lewis: As you can see, Colby Lewis is rarely a good daily fantasy baseball option at home. The D’backs have been mashing since that “motivational speech” from up top last week. It’s like they’ve been trying to make up for lost time.

Detroit @ Chicago (NL) 8:05 ET

M.Scherzer: Scherzer hasn’t been very good since his 15 K performance 4 starts back. Although he struck out 9 in the very next start, he hasn’t surpassed 6 innings in 4 of his last 5 and has struck out a total of 8 in his last 2 starts, while allowing 7 HR’s in his last 4. If that was all too confusing: more of the bad, less of the good lately.

P.Maholm: Maholm has a 2.86 GB/FB in his last 2 starts, with only 4 line drives and no HR’s allowed, yet has allowed 8 ER’s in 9.1 IP. That looks like a little bit of misfortune or some really poor defense. It’s probably a little of both. In fact, Maholm has a 14 LD% for the year, while keeping the ball mostly on the ground. That creates a bit of value here, especially against a Tiger team that has proven again and again that they’re little more than an average offense and have a bit tougher time against LHP’s. I don’t expect Maholm to be great, but he should be better than he’s been and for this price, that should be enough. Good Value

Milwaukee @ Kansas City 8:10 ET

Z.Greinke: We all know about Greinke’s inexplicable road struggles, but I don’t think Kansas City qualifies. He’s only allowed more than 1 ER in 1 of his last 6 starts with an 8.6 K/BB in those 5 starts. Greinke has only allowed 2 HR’s all year. The Royals have been just awful offensively over the past week. Top Value

L.Mendoza: On the year, Mendoza has walked 27 and only struck out 19.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota 8:10 ET

K.Kendrick: His shine as a decently performing under the radar starter seems to have worn off in recent outings and Minnesota has been an under-rated offense at home this year, which is strange considering it’s not much of a hitter’s park.

N.Blackburn: No.

Chicago (AL) @ St Louis 8:15 ET

J.Quintana: Adam Dunn may be forced to play the outfield. Not physically forced at like gun point or anything, but you know what I mean.

A.Wainwright: Very close. He could very well go out there and throw 7 innings with 8 strikeouts and only a run or two. It’s a great sign that he’s only allowed 1 HR over his last 7 starts. Run prevention just continues to be a problem for him this year as he’s allowed 10 over his last 12 innings despite the great peripherals.  

Oakland @ Colorado 8:40 ET

B.Colon: Terrible spot.

J.Guthrie: This should be interesting. Interesting in that Oakland has been hitting lately and I wonder if they’ll put up a 10 spot here. I envision encountering several Oakland stacks in large field contests today.

Los Angeles (AL) @ Los Angeles (NL) 10:10 ET

J.Williams: A.J. Ellis was on base 4 times last night. He scored 0 runs because he had the #8 batter and the pitcher hitting behind him. Williams has extreme Home/Road split differences, but this is as close as it gets to pitching at home as both parks are even similar in run and HR factors. Luckily for Williams, Mattingly hates scoring runs and buries the players most capable of getting on base and doing so at the bottom of the order. Witness the Dodgers 7 walks and 13 base runners total while only scoring 2 runs on Monday as evidence of such. Good Value

A.Harang: Harang has been ok, but there’s no extra value in that today.

San Diego @ Seattle 10:10 ET

C.Richard: I don’t mean to say that Clayton Richard is unusable against any team in any park outside of Petco...no...actually that’s exactly what I mean to say. However, this is probably as close as it gets. Seattle’s offensive outburst didn’t carry over to their homestand. They’ve been just as bad as ever lately and are in fact absolutely terrible at home, like historically bad.

F.Hernandez: King Felix has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and missed his last start due to injury.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Houston @ San Francisco 10:15 ET

B.Norris: This looks to be your premier daily fantasy baseball matchup of the day. Mr. Norris struck out 12 Cardinals without walking any in his last start without a walk. His previous starts look ugly, but one of those was in Colorado and he was dealing with a hip flexor at the time. He eased those concerns with his performance last time out. Sure he allowed 2 HR’s, but only 3 balls in the air total. This is a great spot and a very reasonable price. Top Value

M.Bumgarner: Bumgarner didn’t have his best stuff last time out, but had been striking out more batters in his previous 3 starts and is usually very good at home (as most Giant pitchers are). As a matter of fact, he’s only allowed more than 2 ER’s once in 11 home starts dating back to last July and has a 5.4 K/BB in that span. Top Value

*Top Values Tuesday: Zack Greinke, Bud Norris, Madison Bumgarner

Good Values: Paul Maholm, Jerome Williams

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Greinke, Bumgarner, C.C. Sabathia, Norris

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

Additionally, some pitchers who were not tagged may also be options, as mentioned in the write-ups, if they can be found at the right price. There should be enough decent options for everyone today no matter which site you play on.  

 
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