Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Sat. 6-16-2012
Posted on Jun 16th, 2012 08:59 AM

As I’m setting up the chart Friday evening, the Athletics still have yet to name a starter for Saturday. They’re playing the Padres, so I guess they figure it doesn’t really matter. For now, we’ll deal with those who made the effort to name a starting pitcher for Saturday.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Remember to check updated wind conditions and weather reports throughout the day. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis?


Three From The Top

C.Lee: Lee is used to pitching in hitter’s parks and the Blue Jays have scored more than 3 runs only once in 8 their last 8 games. The power bats in their lineup lend themselves to streakiness. Cliff has given up some runs lately (not a ton) and is still looking for his 1st W, but he has struck out at least 7 in 7 of 10 starts this year and 6 in 2 others. Good Value

A.Pettitte: I don’t know what Andy Pettitte did during his year off, but now every pitcher may be asking for a vacation year in their next contract. The 40 year old has struck out at least 8 in 4 of his last 5 and has only allowed more than 2 ER’s once in that span. His last 2: 13.1 IP – 7 H – 2 ER – 4 BB – 18 K – 18 GB - 49 BF). Good Value

J.Shields: Shields hasn’t been at his best lately, but he has a track record. His peripherals (3.22 SIERA 2012) say he’s been just as good as last year, despite an ERA over a run higher and the Marlins can’t hit anything right now and they have the 3rd worst wRC+ (85) in the majors for the season (yet somehow their park is the 3rd highest scoring in the majors, neither here nor there, but go figure). Good Value

Two From The Middle

J.Lester: The LD% is still pretty high, but Lester otherwise has some solid batted ball rates and hasn’t allowed a HR in his last 3 starts. He’s also only walked 3 and struck out 21 (19.2 IP – 84 BF) in those starts and the Cubs are just offensively inferior in every way. Top Value

U.Jimenez: I’ll wait for you to get back up now……but this is the guy the Indians thought they traded for. Ubaldo has gone 13.1 IP in his last 2 starts (2 ER total) with only 1 BB and 11 K’s against 2 pretty decent offenses (STL, DET). This is not a good offense, not even close. Further evidence that this may be more than a fluke is that his velocity is up over 1 mph from previous starts this year. Top Value

One From The Bottom

C.Friedrich: In 4 road starts, Friedrich hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs a single time and no more than 1 run 3 times. That comes with a total of 5 BB’s and 27 K’s in 25 IP. Sleeper Alert

*Top Values for Saturday: Jon Lester, Ubaldo Jimenez

Good Values: Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte, James Shields

Sleeper Alert: Christian Friedrich

Top Draft Targets: Lee, Pettitte, Lester, Shields

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

Sometimes you just have to have a bit of faith and look at what they’ve done lately. The 2 from the middle were on their way to the bottom of the pile, but if they can keep up what they’ve done so far this month, they might be headed back to the top before the All Star break.

 
 
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