Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Sun. 6-24-2012
Posted on Jun 24th, 2012 09:25 AM

There have been some changes since the pitching chart was created, namely Buchholz being replaced by Cook due to illness and whatever chaos the rainout on Friday created in Philadelphia. Hopefully, we’ll survive all the confusion. It also seems Brandon McCarthy and Henderson Alvarez have been removed too. I promise you that at least 1 pitcher in the chart above is starting today.
A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Remember to check updated wind conditions and weather reports throughout the day. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis?
Two From The Top
C.Lee: (From Friday – Lee will be pitching one of the games in the double header today even though he isn’t listed in the chart which is put together ahead of time on Sunday) Cliff Lee just doesn’t want to win ball games. At first it was his run support, but the last 2….??? Nah, he’ll be fine. If you look at his fangraphs page, he profiles as exactly the same guy he was last year with a slightly higher BABIP and some more HR’s. I’m not dismissing the HR’s, but you’re getting a slightly reduced price to compensate for it and the Rays have a lot of trouble with LHP’s. Good Value
W.Miley: Initially, Miley was thriving despite his peripherals, but lately he has put it all together to get to a point where he now offers significant daily fantasy value. Over his last 3 starts: 22.2 IP – 15 H – 3 ER – 0 HR – 1 BB – 21 K – 82 BF. The increased K’s and decreased BB’s come with an excellent 2.21 GB/FB over his last 4, although the line drives have gone up slightly. However, I don’t expect the Cubs to provide much resistance. Good Value
Two From The Middle
A.Cobb: (From Saturday – Cobb should also be pitching in one of the games in the double header on Sunday, although he isn’t listed in the chart either) Cobb had the best game of his young career last time out, combining 10 K’s with 10 GB’s in 24 BF’s. In fact, he has a 3.24 GB/FB ratio on the year now with a reasonable line drive rate. The only stadium he’s allowed a HR in during his 6 starts is Yankee Stadium. If the ball bounces reasonably, he could be very good here against a Philadelphia team who’s offensive numbers may be a bit inflated facing Colorado, Toronto, and Minnesota pitching in their last 3 series. Good Value
M.Leake: I’m a little surprised that Leake’s price remains this low with how good he’s been lately. He’s allowed exactly 1 ER in 4 of his last 7 starts and no more than 4 in any of them (although he did have 2 starts with 3 ER and less than 5 IP in there). He’s only allowed 3 HR’s in those 7 starts and has a 3.7 K/BB over that span as well. That’s enough strikeouts and control to be useful to your daily fantasy baseball lineup. Minnesota has scored 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 5 and just can’t hit on the road overall. Top Value
Two From The Bottom
J.Arrieta: Arrieta has pitched better than the results say lately, although he only has 1 good start to show for it. He has a 9.0 K/BB over his last 18 IP (3 starts). In his last start, all 4 runs allowed came on 1 swing and he was exceptional at home the start before (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 9K). The Washington offense poses little threat. Sleeper Alert
H.Noesi: Noesi has had some minor success at home, but has also struggled greatly on the road. HR’s and the Padres in general should not present that great of a problem today and the price is extremely low. He could end up sneaking a decent start in there. Good Value
*Top Values for Sunday: Mike Leake
Good Values: Wade Miley,Cliff Lee, Alex Cobb, Hector Noesi
Sleeper Alert: Jake Arrieta
Top Draft Targets: Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, R.A. Dickey, C.C. Sabathia, Lee, Cole Hamels, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley
*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.
Most of the top pitchers have excessive price tags. As a result, much of the value comes from the bottom 2/3 today.

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