Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Fri. 6-29-2012
Posted on Jun 29th, 2012 11:40 AM

I gotta be honest. There are a quite a few names I don’t even recognize today. These guys (major league pitchers) are dropping like flies this month. We’ll (me) do our best to sort it out for all the readers (you).
A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago (AL) @ New York (AL) 7:05 ET
J.Quintana: I did not realize that Quintana had a 1.25 ERA through 43.1 IP or that he had not allowed more than 2 ER’s in a start with none in 16 innings over his last 2. Why is his SIERA approximately 3 runs above his ERA then? HR’s: only 2 in 162 BF without that big of an IFFB rate. It great, but doesn’t seem sustainable, especially considering his batted ball profile and the park he pitches most his games in. BABIP & LOB: .262 and 91.8% are both, again, unsustainable, especially on a very high 24 LD%. His xBABIP is above .300. Exceptional control, but I can’t buy that he is anything more than an average pitcher on a hot streak.
A.Warren: You got me. I’m going to borrow from Marc Hulet’s pre-season Top 15 Prospects (NYY) on fangraphs (God, I hope that’s all legal and stuff) from this pre-season on Warren who he had ranked 14th: “Warren has a solid fastball that rangers between 89-94 mph but he lacks consistency with his secondary pitchers, which include a curveball and cutter. An extreme ground-ball pitcher in the low minors, Warren completely flipped around to a fly-ball pitcher in 2011 at triple-A. He’ll likely top out as a middle reliever in the Majors where he’ll be able to focus on two pitches. Warren pitched 152 innings as a starter this past season so he has proven to be durable; it’s possible he could carve out a career in the starting rotation as a No. 4 or 5 starter on a second division club.” So there you have it.
Cleveland @ Baltimore 7:05 ET
D.Lowe: This is an exceptional price on Lowe against a team that just is not hitting that well for a while now. The park doesn’t scare me with Lowe who’s allowed 5 HR’s all season. Ground balls, ground balls, and more ground balls are what you can expect here. The Orioles probably even raise his K rate a bit. He might get 3 or 4 today. Good Value
J.Arrieta: Arrieta has gotten some great results since his reprieve and return to the rotation after it was announced that he was losing his job: 20 IP – 18 H – 6 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 18 K – 81 BF. He’s not that good though and despite the 64 wRC+ over the last 7 days, Cleveland has picked it up over the last game + 9th inning vs the Yankees. They are 4th best in the majors vs RHP overall.
Los Angeles (AL) @ Toronto 7:07 ET
E.Santana: Not a good small park pitcher. Forget pure hitter’s parks, he has allowed 9 HR’s in 5 starts on the road in non-extreme pitcher’s parks which include @COL, @MIN, @CLE, @TB, @NYY.
C.Villanueva: Villanueva has a nice K rate, but that has come out of the bullpen all season. He still may strike out a few batters, but has control issues and gives up a ton of HR’s. Perhaps you’ve noticed what the Angel lineup has been doing to the baseball lately.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay 7:10 ET
J.Verlander: The most surprising thing about the Tigers .315 BABIP allowed is that it is only 3rd worst in the majors. That brings every pitcher’s value down a bit, even Justin Verlander who can’t strike out everybody. Perhaps even more surprising is that BABIP average includes Verlander’s .254. Is it possible that it could be even lower? It doesn’t make him any less awesome, but at this price, it might be too much.
D.Price: I love that Price actually gets beat up every once in a while in order to keep his cost reasonable (not that he does it on purpose….although I’d appreciate it if he did). He’s been money almost every time at home and even when he isn’t (his last home start) it had a little bit of variance to it (0 fly balls). He’s allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 at home. Good Value
Oakland @ Texas 8:05 ET
A.Griffin: The A’s gave him a start vs SF before his real initiation tonight.
M.Harrison: Harrison has allowed 1 ER total over his last 4 starts, but only has a 1.67 K/BB with totals of 10 and 6 over his last 3. He’s done it by somehow not allowing HR’s (1 in his last 8 starts) in part due to a much increased ground ball rate this season. His last start was cut short due to injury, but Texas evidentially believes he’s sound enough to go here. Is it possible he’s pushing it due to all the other injuries to the staff? (Realize I’m only pulling that theory out of thin air with no evidence to back it up.)
Kansas City @ Minnesota 8:10 ET
L.Mendoza: Mendoza has been doing a surprisingly adequate job of portraying a starting pitcher in 3 starts this month. His limit is 6 innings, which he’s reached twice this month and he has walked exactly as many as he’s struck out this season (30) though.
B.Duensing: As a starter, Duensing is a decent reliever.
Boston @ Seattle 10:10 ET
A.Cook: Don’t expect him to do what Morales did last night, but just look at what Seattle does, or rather can’t do, at home and then look at his price. The name on the jersey barely matters as long as he can get it to the plate without a bounce. He hasn’t even struck out a single one of the 37 batters he’s seen this year, but he doesn’t have to do much. Top Value
H.Noesi: Close because that’s what this park does, but Noesi has been prone to disaster occasionally this year and has had 6 starts with 3 or less K’s. Wait, but you just said you didn’t care that Cook hadn’t struck out anybody! True, attentive reader, but Noesi’s price is higher against a much better offense.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia @ Miami 7:10 ET
C.Lee: Something’s gotta give. Somebody’s gotta win this game. Of course it could always go ND for Lee with the Marlins still losing. The only thing I can say in defense of his last 3 starts is that……well…..I can’t defend him really. The Marlins being terrible against LHP this season and the hope that he can return to being Cliff Lee makes it close again, but it’s time to jump off and see if he can figure it out. That said, I now fully expect him to get his 1st W tonight.
J.Johnson: Johnson hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in 9 consecutive starts now, dropping his ERA below 4.00 for the 1st time this year. It seems he has gained a 2nd tier price too. Utley’s return adds an element of stability to the middle of the Philly order now. Johnson’s still likeable, but maybe not all that desirable at his current price.
Washington @ Atlanta 7:35 ET
R.Detwiler: Detwiler has defaulted himself back into the starting rotation, but as you can see by the chart above, there’s nothing all that special going on here.
R.Delgado: I assume Washington goes back to scoring 3 runs per game now. You would think that Delgado would have some value here with the Nats maybe looking a little fatter than they should coming out of Coors, but you never know what he’s going to do. Over his last 7 starts, he’s walked more than he’s struck out every other time (4 times total).
Arizona @ Milwaukee 8:10 ET
I.Kennedy: The Brewers have been awful. Ian Kennedy’s been bad. I guess the difference is that the Brewers really mash at home while Kennedy’s been basically average overall.
R.Wolf: The D’backs are hot and one of the league’s top offenses vs LHP. As for Wolf, you never really know what you’re going to get out of him.
San Diego @ Colorado 8:10 ET
J.Marquis: Hahahahahahaha………..hahahahahahaha.
J.Francis: Now you’ll really get to see the difference between Petco and Coors. The Rockies have a .341 team BABIP allowed!!! That’s more than 20 points higher than any other team in the majors. Some of that’s due to one of the worst defenses in the league, but .341!!! Stack your right handed Padres tonight?
Pittsburgh @ St Louis 8:15 ET
K.Correia: He’s pitched a bit better as of late, but it’s still that .248 BABIP and great home park that’s keeping that ERA reasonable. An offense like the Cardinals should be able to have their way with him.
A.Wainwright: Wainwright is another pitcher who’s regained his elite price. He’s been pitching really well lately, so it’s still very close, but do you know who has the 4th highest wRC+ in the NL in the month of June (and it really should be 3rd because the Rockies hardly count)? It’s the Pirates at 106. In fact, they’ve scored the 2nd most runs this month in the NL as well (125) this month.
New York (NL) @ Los Angeles (NL) 10:10 ET
R.Dickey: Dickey’s last outing just goes to show that there are always going to be games where a knuckleballer doesn’t have it, no exceptions (but that’s probably true of almost any pitcher really). It couldn’t have come at a worse time, on national TV vs the Yankees, but that’s what makes it so difficult with him at such a high price. And I say that being one of the biggest R.A. Dickey fans there is. He should have a great outing here, especially against the Dodgers, but it may be too expensive to risk.
A.Harang: Do you know which team has scored the most runs in the NL in June? The Mets (128). Yeah, 13% of those came in one game with the wind blowing out in Wrigley a couple of days ago, but Harang was walked 14 and struck out only 11 over his last 3 starts and even worse at 10 and 6 over his last 2 with zero strikeouts last time out.
Cincinnati @ San Francisco 10:15 ET
M.Leake: They keep under-rating him and I’ll keep picking him up. 7 of 8 starts now with 3 ER’s or less, including 5 with 2 ER’s or less. Leake has decent K #’s too in those starts with between 4 to 7 each time and an impressive 4.2 K/BB overall during that span. In addition, he keeps the ball on the ground and doesn’t allow HR’s, not that that would be much of a problem here anyway. An improved Giants offense and hot team overall is the only thing keeping this from being a Top Value. If he’s good again here, I fear he may be out of the value range next time. Good Value
M.Cain: The Giants seem poised to make a run at the West with everything clicking right now. Cain faltered immediately following the greatest game ever pitched, but got back to normal last time out. As long as you realize that normal is something less than the greatest game ever pitched.
*Top Values Friday: Aaron Cook
Good Values: Derek Lowe, Mike Leake, David Price
Sleeper Alert: Scott Feldman, Andrew Cashner (price conditional), Chris Young
Top Draft Targets: Price, Dickey, Justin Verlander, Lee, Wainwright, Cain
*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.
Fewer than I would have liked, it looks like the top and even most of the 2nd tier may be out of our reach tonight, but it should still be enough to work with.

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