Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Mon. 7-2-2012
Posted on Jul 2nd, 2012 10:44 AM

All Star selections were released yesterday. I went on a short rant over David Wright losing his starting job to Pablo Sandoval’s 2 million votes over the weekend, but have since calmed down after remembering how silly the voting process is anyway. I’m over it and moving onto Monday’s pitching.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Los Angeles (AL) @ Cleveland 7:05 ET

J.Weaver: Weaver hasn’t missed a beat since returning from injury. He’s now allowed 1 ER or less in 8 of 13 starts in 2012. The only 2 starts this season where he’s allowed more than 3 ER’s have come on the road, but 1 was in Texas and the other was his 1st road start of the season. Cleveland, though, is the 4th best offense vs RHP and has been hot overall lately.

U.Jimenez: Ubaldo found his control for a few starts at the beginning of June, but it didn’t last. This offense may tear him apart.

Minnesota @ Detroit 7:05 ET

L.Hendriks: Like most Minnesota pitchers, Hendriks has exceptional control, but not much else behind it. He’s allowed at least 1 HR in every start this season and a total of 10 to 158 batters.

D.Fister: I’m inclined to give Fister a pass for a rough outing in Texas. His peripherals still look strong, but the 25.5 LD% this year is becoming concerning and you really can’t underestimate the range limitations of the Detroit defense. They’re pretty awful.

Kansas City @ Toronto 7:07 ET

E.Teaford: Teaford’s 2 starts this year are nothing to write home about and Toronto is one team you usually don’t want to mess with at home.

R.Romero: What has happened to Ricky Romero? Or more specifically, what has happened to Romero’s control? He’s walked 10 in his last 10 innings and at least 4 on 6 occasions this year.

New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay 7:10 ET

F.Garcia: Garcia has been very good out of the bullpen, but has not started a game since April. The thing to look at though is the Tampa offense which has been pretty bad for a while now. For this price, you’re not asking Garcia to do much and he could easily trip and fall into 5 quality innings here. Good Value

M.Moore: It’s looked a couple of times this season that Moore was beginning to come into his own, but it’s never taken and held for more than a few starts. This is a spot he could struggle in with his reverse platoon split (Granderson, Cano). LHB’s absolutely rake against him.  

Boston @ Oakland 10:05 ET

D.Matsuzaka: Daisuke was really good vs Toronto last time out and has only walked 1 batter 3 times this season in 4 starts. This would seem like a great spot for him, but his history is not one of stellar control. His F-Strike % (which is the best predictor of BB% that we have) is actually well below his career average as well, so it doesn’t really fit. You worry about a guy who is pitching from behind half the time.

J.Parker: It’s hard to buy that 1.61 K/BB, although he did strike out a career high 9 in his last start. Oakland pitchers may get more IFFB’s (14.9%) in that park, but a .248 BABIP with a 25.5 LD%? No. He’s allowed more line drives than hits over his last 3 starts.

Baltimore @ Seattle 10:10 ET

J.Hammel: Hammel got drilled his last time out by a hot Angels team. It’s pretty amazing that he followed up his best start of the year with his worst, but a trip to Seattle usually sets things right. A couple of really bad starts this month keep him off the top of the pile at this price, but it’s still plenty good in this park. Good Value

H.Iwakuma: Iwakuma makes his 1st major league start. He’s done some long relief, but hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in an outing this year. He wasn’t particularly good in the bullpen though, so I don’t see how he would be better transitioning to a starting role.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Houston @ Pittsburgh 7:05 ET

J.Lyles: Remember when we used to salivate at even marginal pitchers in Pittsburgh? Not anymore.

J.McDonald: McDonald, while still having a very good season, seems to have lost some of the magic lately. He’s struck out a total of 15 over his last 4 starts. He’s failed to go 6 innings in 2 of those. In fact, all 7 of his games with 7 K’s or more came in an 8 game stretch this year. Can we confidently say we know who he is?

Chicago (NL) @ Atlanta 7:35 ET

J.Samardzija: Samardzija has gotten blasted in 3 of his last 4 starts.

T.Hanson: Hanson has turned into a pretty mediocre pitcher. Maybe he’s still having shoulder issues, but I have nothing to back that theory up. He could have a good outing against a weak offensive team, but has not struck out more than 5 in any of his last 4 starts and lots of balls are leaving the park.

Miami @ Milwaukee 8:10 ET

C.Zambrano: Milwaukee mashes at home and Zambrano has done nothing but walk batters lately.

Z.Greinke: Unfortunately, only 6 of his 16 starts this year and none of his last 4 have been at home where Greinke’s nearly unhittable. I would have thought he’d be the top pick today at this price, and he still may be, but he’s only struck out 7 of his last 52 batters the Marlin offense has picked up the pace a bit. Good Value

Colorado @ St Louis 8:15 ET

J.Outman: Outman must have been thrilled when he realized his next start would be on the road, until he found out it was in St Louis.

K.Lohse: It’s all about price with Lohse because you know exactly what he’s going to give you. In his last 4 starts, he’s pitched between 7 and 8 innings with exactly 4 strikeouts each time and walked exactly 2 on 3 of those occasions. The price today, is not all that attractive though.

San Diego @ Arizona 9:40 ET

C.Richard: Clayton Richard has pitched well even on the road lately, but he’s still usually a no away from Petco and especially in Arizona where the Diamondbacks simply abuse left handed pitching.

T.Cahill: It’s disappointing that the Padres could barely muster an above average offense playing in Houston and Colorado last week, so you shouldn’t expect much more here, but Cahill has been lit up in 2 consecutive outings now. You might be able to point to a little bit of bad luck in the 1st, but in Atlanta, he walked 4 and struck out only 3, allowing 2 HR’s.

Cincinnati @ Los Angeles (NL) 10:10 ET

H.Bailey: Bailey has been just bad enough over his last 2 starts to keep him off the value pile today. Considering he’s pitching in LA against the Dodgers tonight, that means he’s been pretty terrible with 4 walks, 4 strikeouts, and 3 HR’s allowed.

C.Billingsley: Part of what troubled the Cincinnati offense this past week was a very good SF pitching staff, but they’ve struggled on the road all season. Although the results don’t necessarily back it up, Billingsley’s peripherals haven’t been bad lately. He’s hasn’t walked more than 3 in any of his last 7 starts (3.07 K/BB) and the 3 times he walked exactly 3, he struck out at least 7 each time. The price is likeable today. Good Value

*Top Values Monday: None

Good Values: Chad Billingsley,Zach Greinke,Freddy Garcia, Jason Hammel

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Greinke, Hammel, Jered Weaver

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

That’s 2 days in a row with no Top Value picks. Don’t think I’m proud of that, but I don’t make the prices. 


 

 
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