Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Wed. 7-4-2012
Posted on Jul 4th, 2012 05:11 AM

Crazy start times all over the league on Independence Day. We’ll cover all the games with the exception of the 11am ET start in Washington.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay 3:10 ET

D.Phelps: Phelps has pitched really well for the Yankees this season, mostly out of the pen, but not too badly in his 2 starts either (8.2 IP – 9 H – 2 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 8 K – 38 BF) and only 3 of his 14 appearances lasted less than 2 innings. Due to all the multi-inning outings, including 6 of at least 3 innings, I don’t expect his healthy K-rate to take too big a hit in transition to starting. Despite what qualifies as an outburst with 7 runs for this Rays last night, they are a below average offensive team in every way imaginable here. Phelps may not go more than 5 innings, but there’s a good chance that those are quality innings. Sleeper Alert

D.Price: It usually takes several negative factors to steer me off David Price at home and today we have those multiple conditions: 1) The Yankees can hit well enough just about everywhere and don’t necessarily take a hit vs LHP. 2) Price’s….uhm….price, is fairly high (#2 on just about every board) despite the quality of competition. 3) Although it didn’t seem to affect his performance and Price says he is fine, he was pulled from his last start due to a back issue. He still remains draftable, especially today, even if there is some trepidation towards paying.

Los Angeles (AL) @ Cleveland 4:05 ET

E.Santana: Cleveland is hitting the hell out of the ball and Santana is a notoriously worse pitcher on the road. He’s allowed at least 5 ER’s in 4 of 8 starts away this year.

D.Lowe: His price is making him nearly impossible to pass on today…..nearly. He has a 6.4 GB/FB over his last 2 starts with 32 of 52 batters faced hitting ground balls, but the Angels seem to have not stopped hitting since Trout came up and Lowe’s defense does him few favors.

Boston @ Oakland 4:05 ET

F.Morales: I’m seeing listings and prices for both Morales and Cook today. I’m going to go with Morales simply because I like him better….and what’s not to like? In 3 starts this year: 18 IP – 14 H – 4 ER – 0 HR – 3 BB – 24 K – 71 BF. Oakland’s gonna slow him down? Now that I’ve put in the effort, I’m almost positive it will end up being Cook. It quickly turns into a pretty sad group of starters today if it’s not Morales. Top Value

A.Griffin: Anyone who shuts out the Rangers for 6 innings on 2 hits in Texas has to be worth something, right? It really wasn’t much of a fluke either as he kept 10 of 16 batted balls on the ground and added 4 strikeouts. Boston has only scored more than 2 runs once in 6 games on their current West Coast trip. Sleeper Alert

Baltimore @ Seattle 10:10 ET

C.Tillman: It’s a day of sleepers. Tillman has struck out at least 7 in 5 of his last 6 starts (AAA). In those 5 starts, he’s allowed a total of 4 ER’s, 1 HR, and 5 BB’s. He may be one of several Baltimore pitchers who have failed to live up to expectations so far in their career, but welcome to Seattle. Sleeper Alert

H.Noesi: A rare no to any pitcher taking the mound at Safeco. Noesi has occasionally been tolerable at home, but he’s also been pounded too. He’s allowed 7 HR’s in his last 3 home starts. The entire Seattle staff has only allowed 33 in this park and he’s responsible for 27% of them.

Minnesota @ Detroit 7:05 ET

B.Duensing: I stand by my statement made about him last week that as a starter, he’s a decent reliever. He’s allowed 7 ER’s in 7 IP in 2 starts with 2 HR’s, 2 BB’s, and 2 K’s.

J.Verlander: Minnesota has not scored less than 5 ER’s in any of their last 5 games. Verlander allowed 3 HR’s to the Rays last time out and has a 0.58 GB/FB over his last 2 starts with only 1 infield fly. The good news is that he’s struck out 15 of 57 batters faced while only walking 2. A dominant start, which is what you need for this price, is not a given today.

Kansas City @ Toronto 7:07 ET

L.Mendoza: Mendoza has been surprisingly useful in 3 of 4 starts since being re-inserted into the rotation, but that’s about the only positive for him here.

C.Villanueva: Villanueva wasn’t too bad in his 1st start last week vs a potent Angel lineup and hasn’t been bad overall for this Toronto team, but I think we have enough in the sleeper category for today and I wouldn’t trust him yet for anything more.

Texas @ Chicago (AL) 7:10 ET

S.Feldman: I can’t think of any legitimate reason to even consider Feldman here.

D.Axelrod: Likewise for Axelrod.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia @ New York (NL) 1:10 ET

C.Lee: Remember when it was all about the Phillies and their inability to score for poor Cliff Lee? Well, that hasn’t been the case for about a month now and it’s getting worse by the start.

C.Young: Young is no longer so cheap on some sites and has to be really on to have daily fantasy value at anything more than a low price. He may be useable on sites that value run prevention much more than strikeouts. And he’s gotta be a lock for the win here today too, right? I just said that last part because of how strange I knew it would sound. You’re going to read it, look at Cliff Lee’s name above, read it again, and be amazed at the wonder that is baseball.

Houston @ Pittsburgh 1:35 ET

D.Keuchel: I really feel like I’ve been demoted to doing the AAA pitching report today. 1.35 ERA = Nice. .194 BABIP = What? 99% LOB = Holy.... 2 of the 3 runs he’s allowed in 20 innings came on solo HR’s. Keuchel has walked (9) more than he’s struck out (8).

K.Correia: It’s not like I’m ever going to tell you Correia is a good idea, but these conditions are probably about as good as it gets for him if you were really dying to have him on your daily fantasy team (and I don’t know why that would ever be the case).

Florida @ Milwaukee 4:10 ET

J.Johnson: For all of their problems this year, this Milwaukee team just crushes the ball at home. With apologies to Josh Johnson, who’s not allowed more than 2 ER’s in 5 starts, it’s through no fault of his own that you may wish to avoid him today.

R.Wolf: Wolf has allowed 5 HR’s over his last 3 starts (15.2 IP – 73 BF), but has only walked 1 and struck out 16. He’s like a girl that sends mixed signals. It doesn’t matter. The Miami offense is rolling and picking up steam.

Chicago (NL) @ Atlanta 7:10 ET

P.Maholm: Maholm followed up his worst start of the year with his best. He’s the type of guy who can sneakily be useful in decent sized parks against teams that struggle with lefties. Those conditions are close to being met today.

R.Delgado: Delgado has lasted a total of 5.1 IP in his last 2 starts. In fact, he’s only completed 6 innings in 4 of 15 starts this year.

Colorado @ St Louis 7:15 ET

J.Guthrie: Wasn’t he removed from the rotation when they went to 4? They really don’t have 4 better options? It’s not even like he’s been particularly good out of the bullpen either.

A.Wainwright: What happened last time out? All of a sudden Wainwright was giving up HR’s again (2) and he allowed more fly balls than grounders for the 1st time this year. He still had 7 strikeouts and only 1 walk, so maybe give him the benefit of the doubt with a weak starting field today against a Colorado team that hits on the road like Seattle does at home (ok, maybe a little better, but you get the point). Good Value

Cincinnati @ Los Angeles (NL) 9:10 ET

M.Leake: Last time out, I said that Leake might be unaffordable soon if he continued to get great results. Then he went out and threw a complete game, allowing only 1 run and his price went up as expected. But guess what? I didn’t realize he was facing the Dodgers. Expect his normal again (or what it’s been for about a month now: At least 7 IP, a couple of runs, and 4 to 6 K’s. Good Value

A.Harang: Not even one of the best defenses in the league can do much for you when you walk more than you strike out 3 starts in a row. Harang never really had pinpoint control, but where did this come from?

San Diego @ Arizona 9:40 ET

J.Marquis: Of Marquis 5 road starts this year (with both teams), 2 came in Seattle. He allowed 17 ER’s in 12.2 IP in the other 3. However, he’s gone from a 7.5 K% in the AL to a 22.7 K% in the NL in an equal amount of innings now.

I.Kennedy: There seems to be no in between with Kennedy. He’s either lights out or lit up and there’s really no discernible pattern to it either. San Diego has scored 6 or more runs in 5 of 9 games on their current road trip.

*Top Values Wednesday: Franklin Morales (if he is in fact the starter)

Good Values: Mike Leake,Adam Wainwright

Sleeper Alert: Chris Tillman,David Phelps, A.J. Griffin

Top Draft Targets: Morales, David Price, Justin Verlander, Wainwright

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

Just picking whoever’s pitching in Seattle every day is getting too easy, but it’s almost mandatory today.

 
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