Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitter Analysis Saturday 7-14-2012
Posted on Jul 13th, 2012 11:57 AM
Sometimes I wonder why I don’t take my own advice. Yesterday I made some last minute changes and it cost me in a few leagues. Add in the fact that I played in contests on seven different sites and you have a recipe for disaster. Luckily, I diversified my lineups enough to break-even (or close to it) overall. Hopefully you had better luck!

The great thing about daily fantasy baseball is that you get to start with a clean slate every day and forget about your previous misfortunes. Let’s take a look at some good plays today across the daily fantasy sports sites.

Picks to Click

Ryan Braun (OF | Brewers) – Braun came out of the All-Star break swinging and single-handedly saved me yesterday on most of the sites, so he gets a shout out today. Plus, he gets to face Kevin Correia at home. He’s 8 of 26 lifetime against Correia with 1 double, 1 triple, 2 homeruns, and 5 RBIs. He’s going to cost you a pretty penny, but he’ll be worth the investment.

Ryan Howard (1B | Phillies) – Howard hasn’t had his welcome back party yet, but I think it’s coming soon. He hits RHP much better and will benefit from playing in the thin Colorado air. He surprisingly hasn’t faced Jeremy Guthrie in the past, so there’s not much data to go on. He’s pretty cheap on a lot of daily fantasy sites, so pick and choose where you use him. I wouldn’t pay top dollar for him (especially on sites that count strike outs against you).

Batter vs. Pitcher

Casey Kotchman (1B | Indians) – Kotchman is 9 of 10 lifetime against Toronto’s Aaron Laffey with 4 doubles and 2 RBIs. Kotchman had the day off on Friday as Travis Hafner DHed and Carlos Santana played 1B. The Indians would be crazy not to start Kotchman today, but check the starting lineup just incase!

Howie Kendrick (2B | Angels) – We’ve been waiting for Kendrick to put it all together for a couple years now and it still hasn’t happened. He puts up solid numbers for a second basemen, but isn’t a player you can rely on day in and day out in daily fantasy baseball. Today, however, is one of the days you can insert Kendrick in your starting lineup. He’s 5 of 8 lifetime against Freddy Garcia and gets to hit in the friendly confines of Yankee stadium.

Torii Hunter (OF | Angels) – If you’re looking for some power on Saturday Hunter may be your guy. Sure he’ll turn 37 in less than a week, but he’s only a year older than the opposing pitcher Freddy Garcia. Hunter is 19 of 48 (.396 avg) against Garcia with 3 doubles, 4 homeruns, and 8 RBIs. Even if he uses his cane as a bat he has a good chance of putting one over the fence.

Fantasy Baseball Cane Bat

Opposing Pitchers to Target

J. Guthrie (Rockies) – The Phillies travel to the launching pad known as Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies. Coors Field has been the most generous hitter’s park by far this season based on our recent Park Factors analysis. Yes, those are the same two sentences I used yesterday for C. Friedrich. There is a possibility you see them again tomorrow too!

F. Garcia (Yankees) – Garcia has pitched well lately, but his last two starts were on the road. He returns to Yankees stadium Saturday where he’s sporting a 7.13 ERA this year. His historical batter vs. pitcher data against the Angels isn’t very attractive either (see previous section).

Kevin Correia (Pirates) – Correia has been pretty bad on the road this year (Home 3.50 ERA vs. Away 5.10 ERA) which is odd because he pitched better on the road in 2011 (Home 7.71 ERA vs. Away 2.64). Maybe I’m reading into it a little too much…or maybe it’s the fact that he’s walked as many batters on the road as he’s struck out (18) in 47.2 innings pitched. Check out our starting pitcher analysis to see what the chart thinks.

*Note: I got an email from our SP Guru (Matt) this morning and he thinks Correia is the top pitcher to target. He also likes Guthrie and W. Chen.

MLB Vegas Run Lines

10.5 runs - PHI @ COL | LAA @ NYY

10 runs - CLE @ TOR

Team Lines

5.5 runs - PHI

5.0 runs - COL | NYY

4.5 runs - MIL | CIN | LAA | CLE | TOR | DET | CWS

Our daily fantasy baseball hitters analysis is created early in the day before starting lineups are announced, so make sure you confirm our picks are starting before submitting your final roster.

Patrick Smith reUP Sports
 
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