Once again, it’s important to remember that due to the All Star break, we’re dealing with a big gap opponent’s last 7 days wRC+, which really only represents a 3 game sample now. Pitcher 14 day samples though, still have at least 2 starts for all non-injured pitchers through that period (except for Dempster who returned from injury just prior to the break).

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Remember to check updated wind conditions and weather reports throughout the day. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis?

Y.Darvish: I don’t know that there is anything that can be said to make myself look smart for choosing an opposing pitcher in Seattle. Darvish, who wasn’t going deep earlier in the year, has gone at least 7 innings with at least 8 K’s in each of his last 4 starts. The combined line looks like this: 30 IP – 21 H – 11 ER – 3 HR – 9 BB – 40 K – 117 BF. In addition, he has a 2.24 GB/FB and just 9 line drives allowed over that span. The rest (the Seattle offense and the park) is fairly obvious. Good Value

D.Price: The obvious here is that David Price is money at home. Among 92 qualified pitchers, he has the 7^th best home xFIP since the start of last season. He’s gone at least 7 innings in 10 of his last 12 now, has struck out at least 7 in 5 of his last 6, and has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 9. With Ellsbury back, Boston is getting a little bit LHB heavy and Price just crushes lefties. Good Value

M.Scherzer: Scherzer is finally getting the results to match the performance this year. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in 5 starts and has struck out at least 7 each time. His HR rate has slowed considerably (only 2) over this period as well. The O’s strike out more often than any other AL team. It may be difficult for Scherzer to escape without a HR in this park, but the Orioles haven’t been hitting for a while now and he should make up for it in other ways. Good Value

F.Hernandez: Sure, the Rangers have pulverized the opposition at home, but on the road, they’ve basically been a league average offense. No. Stop shaking your head at me at look at the numbers. Yet, they are surely the reason that there are several pitchers more costly than the King on Saturday’s board. He’s allowed more than 1 ER only once in his last 5 starts and that was mostly a single fluky inning as he didn’t walk a batter and still struck out 8 in his so called “rough” start. Never mind road games, the Rangers haven’t scored more than 4 runs in any of their last 8 games overall. I wouldn’t expect Felix Hernandez or Safeco to cure any offensive woes. Top Value

M.Estrada: Marco Estrada has struck out 28 of the last 80 batters he’s faced (35%) and has a 5.5 K/BB (27.4 K%) for the year. If you know nothing else about daily fantasy baseball, know this: strikeouts are good….very, very good (for a pitcher obviously). Yes, the Pirates are the new Rangers offensively, but they still strike out more often than any other team in the majors and that hasn’t changed much. There may be a few runs scored, but that’s why Estrada isn’t a top priced pitcher. Top Value

L.Harrell: Harrell has had an interesting last 3 starts. He had gone 16 innings in 2 starts, allowing only 1 ER, but walking 7 with 16 strikeouts. Then, in his last start, a red hot Pirate team got to him for 5 runs in 5 innings, but he didn’t walk anyone and struck out 9 of the 24 batters he faced. Taking a look at the batted balls from his last start, 10 of 15 were on the ground, so that’s only 5 of 24 batters who didn’t ground out or strike out, yet he still allowed 5 runs. There’s a lot to like out of Harrell lately. Sleeper Alert

T.Lincecum: I struggled with this because just last week I told someone that Lincecum was done for 2012. Then I looked at his price for Saturday and saw that he’s only allowed 1 HR at home this year and also that 4 of his last 5 starts were on the road. The 1 home start in the middle was his best of the year. Don’t read more into that than what it’s worth, but he’s facing a fairly lifeless offense that just sold off its #3 hitter in a pretty great park. I’ll compromise and call Lincecum a sleeper today as I can see him finding a way to pull one out of his back-side here and start driving people nuts all over again while they wonder for 5 days if it was real and sustainable. The Astros strike out 2^nd most often in the majors and this may be Timmy’s last chance. Sleeper Alert

*Top Values for Saturday: Felix Hernandez, Marco Estrada

Good Values: Yu Darvish, David Price, Max Scherzer

Sleeper Alert: Tim Lincecum,Lucas Harrell

Top Draft Targets: Darvish, Hernandez, Price, Scherzer, Dickey, Estrada

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

It’s pretty healthy for the 2^nd consecutive day to start the 2^nd half and yes, I’m going against the top 2 scoring teams in the majors today, but sometimes the situation calls for it.