Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Tue. 7-17-2012
Posted on Jul 17th, 2012 12:35 PM
On Tuesday’s schedule, 7 starters have not thrown a pitch in the last 2 weeks. Some are returning from injury, some are simply injury replacements, and one is even (potentially) making his major league debut. That sort of eliminates some pitchers right off the bat for us.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Los Angeles (AL) @ Detroit 7:05 ET

G.Richards: Garrett Richards was sent down for a reason, and he got blasted in a minor league start to the tune of 8 earned in 3.1 innings (3 BB, 3 K) 5 days ago as well.

J.Turner: Turner’s last AAA game was a 3 hit shutout with no walks and 6 strikeouts. The starts preceding it weren’t as sharp however. His K and BB rates are both poor this year, leading to a 1.67 K/BB and he walked 5 while striking out 3 in his lone major league start. He may still be their top prospect (or not, I don’t know), but it’s difficult to predict good things for him on Tuesday.

Toronto @ New York (AL) 7:05 ET

B.Cecil: Like you actually need excuses to avoid Brett Cecil.

C.Sabathia: Sabathia comes off the DL, does not even make a rehab start, and is your highest priced pitcher on Tuesday against a team with some power, although Joey Bats did hit the DL himself today. Regular readers know my stance on pitchers coming back from injury. Give them their space for a start or two, not to mention the possibility that they may be on shorter pitch counts.

Chicago (AL) @ Boston 7:10 ET

P.Humber: Humber returns from a month long layoff. He has made some rehab starts, but let’s be honest, he’s had very few decent starts since his Perfect Game in April.

J.Lester: The ERA may be a bit high, but the peripherals have been strong for a while now. He had a 6.2 K/BB in June and a 5.0 one so far in 2 July starts. While he’s allowed at least 3 ER’s in 5 of 7 starts since the beginning of June, he has only allowed more than that twice and both of those were 4 ER’s vs the Yankees and Blue Jays, which is not that great a crime. The White Sox are below average on the road and vs LHP, despite a heavily RH lineup. While not the worst, the Sox do rank in the worse half of the league in strikeout rate on the road and vs LHP as well. Good Value

Cleveland @ Tampa Bay 7:10 ET

J.Tomlin: Tomlin has alternated between decency and getting smashed this year. In his defense, what little of it there is, his last 3 bad ones were in extreme hitter’s parks (BAL, NYY, CIN). Those were surrounded by 3 starts of 2 ER or less in 6.2 IP or more. He’s been ok in parks where it’s tougher to get the ball out of and Tampa Bay qualifies. Really though, this is more about an offense that can’t do much of anything than it is Tomlin’s ability. Good Value

M.Moore: Moore’s reverse platoon splits have been well publicized this season, but they have improved slightly and Cleveland does have issues with LHP. That’s where the good news ends unfortunately. After it looked like he was making progress, Moore seems to have regressed again in recent starts. His last 3 starts: 19 IP – 24 H – 12 ER – 2 HR – 10 BB – 11 K – 83 BF. His last start vs these Indians may have been one of his worst of the year.

Baltimore @ Minnesota 8:10 ET

Z.Britton: Britton makes his 1st major league start of the year. The Baltimore defense now rivals the Mets and Tigers as one of the worst in the majors and Minnesota now has both the best home and vs LHP offense in the majors.

S.Deduno: I swear, now the Twins are just making guys up.

Seattle @ Kansas City 8:10 ET

B.Beavan: Blake Beavan returns to resume taking beatings at the major league level. He did have a 2.62 ERA in 6 minor league starts, but only a 9.4 K% and not more than 3 whiffs in any start. The Mariners do have an exceptional defense, but a fly ball, low strikeout pitcher like Beavan pretty much needs everything to go right to be successful.

E.Teaford: I don’t know if any team has ever had as big a Home (58 wRC+)/Road (98 wRC+) split as the Mariners. They leave Seattle and all of a sudden put a bunch of runs on the board. They did face Jonathan Sanchez last night, but he didn’t even really walk anyone in the 1.2 innings he lasted. Teaford hasn’t fared much better in his starts this season.

Texas @ Oakland 10:05 ET

R.Oswalt: It’ll be nice for Oswalt, who’s looked very hittable at times in his return, to see a pitcher’s park for once. The A’s though, seem to have found some power to put in the middle of their lineup. They have the 8th best team ISO (.184) in the majors in July. I can really see this game going either way. Neither 7 strong or an early exit would surprise me.

B.Colon: Texas is now dangerously close to being a below league average offense on the road. They are really having difficulties right now. Colon’s last 4 home starts (one vs Texas) include an early exit vs SD, but overall have been spectacular: 24.2 IP – 18 H – 3 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 15 K – 95 BF. The Rangers are going to have to hit if they want to win this one. There will be no free passes. He’s always been very good vs RHB and Texas only really has Hamilton from the left side. Good Value

NATIONAL LEAGUE

New York (NL) @ Washington 7:05 ET

J.Niese: Niese has been very good outside of one terrible start vs the Cubs last time out. The Nats had an outburst for a couple of weeks, but seem to have crawled back into their hole. The defense can make it more difficult than it should be at times, but Niese should be fine. Good Value

R.Detwiler: Detwiler has been his normal marginal self since returning to the rotation 3 starts ago. That’s not necessarily bad for a 5th starter though. The Mets do have problems with LHP outside of David Wright and Scott Hairston, so given a very favorable price, Detwiler may be able to do some damage tonight. Sleeper Alert

Arizona @ Cincinnati 7:10 ET

T.Bauer: Oh…wow…the loss of Joey Votto ups Bauer’s value here, but this is just not a very good park for him to pitch in at this point in his very young career. He has only allowed 1 HR in his 3 starts, but really struggled with control in 2 of them and this really could be his toughest spot so far. Aside from the Dodgers and Padres, he did face the Braves, but in a pitcher’s park in Atlanta where he left after 4 innings due to an injury plus a pitch count.

J.Cueto: Cueto was pushed back a few days, but gets the start on Tuesday against a D’Backs offense in disarray. He’s only allowed more than 2 ER’s on 5 occasions this year and his 3.37 K/BB is the highest of his career. How he continues to keep the ball inside this park is amazing, but he’s been doing it for long enough now that it may not be a fluke. The fall back is that you need the strikeouts at this price, but they’ve been there more often than not over the past month and a half. Good Value

San Francisco @ Atlanta 7:10 ET

B.Zito: Zito’s bag of tricks does not work very well on the road. His K/BB is now nearing 1.0.

J.Jurrjens: I struggle to understand how a pitcher who was getting smashed at the major league level, goes to the minors, doesn’t change anything, gets smashed in the minors, and then returns to the majors to pitch well. Little has changed beyond an improved BABIP and slightly better control.

Miami @ Chicago (NL) 8:10 ET

A.Sanchez: Sanchez has alternated good with bad his last 6 times out, but he’s still nowhere near the pitcher he was for the 1st month and a half of the season when he was striking out everyone. He does get the benefit of facing a weak Chicago offense, but he’s been too unpredictable lately.

T.Wood: Wood hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in a start since May (7 starts). His peripherals haven’t been all that pretty, which means he’s needed his defense, which has been surprisingly good, to get it done. Miami pretty much is what they are at this point, but the price tag may be a touch high today.

St Louis @ Milwaukee 8:10 ET

J.Kelly: Kelly has really been the beneficiary of an 80.8 LOB% and while a .299 BABIP doesn’t seem that crazy, it comes with a 25.7 LD% and his minor league BABIP was about 30 points higher. You could say, but yeah, the defense is better in the majors. Sure, but so are the hitters.

R.Wolf: No…..but if that price keeps dropping, he might be worth a shot in a good spot at some point, assuming he’s able to stick in a major league rotation.

Pittsburgh @ Colorado 8:40 ET

E.Bedard: Bedard really hasn’t been the same since he had that back problem in early May.

C.Friedrich: Friedrich has teased the ability to pitch at Coors his last 2 starts (11 IP – 10 H – 2 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 12 K – 43 BF), but that wasn’t exactly against world class offenses and he still has more convincing to do.

Houston @ San Diego 10:05 ET

J.Lyles: Going from a game in Colorado to one in San Diego right below it is like coming out of 100 degrees into a nice air conditioned room, which I’m sure Jordan Lyles will enjoy too. All he has to be is reasonable in this spot and he has been more often than not lately. Even his lone bad start in his last 4 was against a red hot Pittsburgh team (I still can’t believe I’m saying that sometimes) where he struck out 6 without walking anyone. Otherwise, he’s been pretty good. Top Value

R.Ohlendorff: What does it say about Ohlendorff that I can’t find enough reason to trust him in Petco against probably the coldest offense in the majors at a reasonable price? Maybe you actually do need at least some ability to pitch, even in San Diego.

Philadelphia @ Los Angeles (NL) 10:10 ET

R.Halladay: Halladay is really in the same boat as Sabathia, except that he did have have a rehab start, which consisted of all of 3 innings in high-A ball. Also, unlike Sabathia, Halladay has been more merely good than Halladay-esque this year.

S.Fife: I still can’t get confirmation on a pitcher for the Dodgers on Tuesday, but rumor has it that Stephen Fife will make his 1st major league appearance if Billingsley still can’t go. He does not seem to be a prospect, more a body because the Dodgers really needed one to put on the mound tonight. His minor league track record pretty much confirms that as he’s never had a 2.0 K/BB above A ball with a K-rate that sits around 15%. He does have a string of 5 consecutive starts now with 3 runs or less, but has allowed 11 ER’s in 27 IP over that span with 16 K’s and 7 BB’s. Again, not particularly exciting.

*Top Values Tuesday: Jordan Lyles

Good Values: Bartolo Colon, Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto, Jon Niese

Sleeper Alert: Ross Detwiler

Top Draft Targets: Lester, Cueto, Niese, Sabathia, Halladay

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

I relied much heavier on track record than recent performance for some pitchers today, mostly due to having less information due to the AS break. It’s a little rough around the edges as I’m not sure what to expect from some, but it still should be better than yesterday.

 

 

 
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