Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Wed. 7-18-12
Posted on Jul 18th, 2012 09:47 AM
Last night, on a poll in our forum, I asked if readers would rather see a condensed format or full write-ups on late games only (the way it’s been done so far this season) on week days with full schedules where there are day games. Of course, the only possible result was a tie, so this one time I will count the additional vote on Twitter for the condensed weekend format and that’s what it’ll look like today. I will be leaving the poll open and check it whenever the situation occurs for the rest of the season to see what the majority wants. I doubt I’ll be able to keep track of Twitter votes though so if you have a preference, please vote in the forum.
A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Remember to check updated wind conditions and weather reports throughout the day. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis?

Three From The Top
C.Kershaw: The Phillies should be improved offensively with the addition of Howard and Utley, but they become more susceptible to good LHP as well now and they were already below average in the first place. There’s a lot of green in Kershaw’s line in the chart today and aside from one start, he’s been pitching exceptionally again for about a month now. Over his last 5 starts (32.1 IP), he’s allowed 10 ER’s with a single HR and 27.8 K%. That’s pretty phenomenal, but that’s also Clayton Kershaw. Good Value
C.Lee: Cliff Lee, the top SIERA going today, both this season and since 2011. The return of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier doesn’t seem to have sparked the Dodgers yet the way they had hoped. Basically, just don’t pitch to Matt Kemp. The Dodgers don’t hit anybody, anywhere, but they really don’t hit lefties. In 2 July starts, Lee looks to have gotten back on track: 14 IP – 16 H – 4 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 13K – 61 BF. Top Value
F.Liriano: This is not a full recommendation because there still seem to be some issues (10 BB in 2 starts previous to last), but Liriano’s mentioned today because he did strike out 15 his last time out, facing the 5th highest K% team overall and 2nd highest road K% team today, if that’s the sort of thing strongly emphasized on the site you play on.
Two From The Middle
W.Rodriguez: The Astros are looking to trade him this week and Wandy gets one last push in San Diego to try to up his value to potential suitors. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been efficient enough and that might make you nearly spectacular in Petco, especially if you’re sitting near the middle of most boards. Be more cautious if he creeps into the top third on your site. Good Value
J.Masterson: Masterson is a guy who just misses the cut today, but gets a mention him for a couple of reasons. First, while his performance generally suffers a bit away from Cleveland, it’s because most the time he is pitching in a more hitter friendly park than his home one on the road. This is not the case today. Secondly, you may look at his 8 run, 4.1 inning outing against these Rays 2 weeks ago with some disdain, but there were some positives. He struck out 7 of 26 batters (though he walked 4) and 8 of 15 batted balls were on the ground, while 2 of the 3 fly balls he allowed left the yard, the only 2 HR’s he’s allowed in his last 6 starts, and he did snap back strongly against a tough team in Toronto last start.
Two From The Bottom
C.Richard: Richard is usually solid at home and he gets the pleasure of facing the worst road team in the world on Wednesday in the best park on the planet. The Astros have the worst wRC+ in the NL this year and the worst wRC+ vs LHP in the majors. Being no real fan of Clayton Richard, I’m still honestly surprised he’s not closer to the middle of most boards than the bottom. He should supply some mediocre pitching, while the Astros should supply some terrible offense. That’s a recipe for great value. Top Value
T.Blackley: Texas, average road team, though they did show signs of life last night. Yet they still have a wRC+ of 60 since the AS break. Realize that Blackley just has 3 inning of relief (1 H – 0 ER – 0 BB – 3 K – 10BF) over the last 2 weeks (which also gets averaged into K & BB% + batted ball %’s in the chart), but still….look at his line in the chart today. He has pitched extremely well for the A’s and not just at home either. His last start was 7 innings of 1 run ball in Texas and he’s only allowed 1 HR all year. You can work with a 15.4 K% when you only walk 5%. Sleeper Alert
*Top Values for Wednesday: Cliff Lee, Clayton Richard
Good Values: Clayton Kershaw, Wandy Rodriguez
Sleeper Alert: Travis Blackley
Top Draft Targets: Lee, Kershaw, Latos, Liriano
*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.
I tried to mention a few close calls to compensate, but, like I said, voting will remain open for the pitching format for week days with day games.
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