Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Mon. 7-30-2012
Posted on Jul 30th, 2012 11:56 AM
I must be one of the few people who enjoys Monday more than Sunday sometimes. The MLB schedule is usually a bit lighter and without day games, there are no time constraints. I can take as much time as I need to do the digging that seems necessary with some of these lesser known pitchers. It’s not only important to know what they’re doing, but even better if you can figure out why they’re doing it and how likely it is to continue.
A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Los Angeles (AL) @ Texas 7:05 ET
E.Santana: The Angels decided to push back the mightily struggling Santana to pitch in Texas instead of against the Rays at home? Texas just rocked him for 6 runs in less than 2 innings last week.
R.Oswalt: It seems as if the back problems that cost him a chunk of last season are going to persist down the stretch this year as well, making this a very dangerous spot. His last 2 (12 IP – 8 H – 2 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 9 K – 45 BF) have been very good though. Unfortunately, the best way to tell how he’s feeling on any given day is to wait to see his velocity and by that time, it’s too late for you to make decisions. Mike Trout was out of the lineup yesterday for the Angels and no Trout seems to mean no offense.
Baltimore @ New York (AL) 7:05 ET
M.Gonzalez: Gonzalez has allowed 4 HR’s to his last 47 batters (9.1 IP) and now gets to pitch in Yankee Stadium. This has the potential to get ugly.
F.Garcia: Garcia has allowed 3 ER’s or less in 4 of 5 starts since returning to the rotation, however, he’s allowed at least 3 in each of the last 3, going more than 6 innings only his last time out. In that outing, he struck out 8 in 7.1 IP, but it was in Seattle. The Orioles have a team 86 wRC+ over the last week, but most of that comes from scoring 1 run in each of the first 3 games they played. They’ve scored at least 6 in 3 of the last 4. Everything with a grain of salt in this game.
Detroit @ Boston 7:10 ET
M.Scherzer: Scherzer has gone at least 6 innings with 7 K’s and 2 ER’s or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. However, he’s still having control issues (8 BB last 15 IP) and still having HR issues (1 in each of last 4 starts). The Red Sox are one of the top home offenses in baseball and the Detroit pitcher is not coming cheap.
C.Buchholz: The Tigers looked like they were making their move, but have now stopped hitting (18 runs last 6 games) and lost 4 of their last 6. Buchholz is coming off back to back 1 run outings, but he walked 3 and only struck out 1 in his last. That start was in Texas however, and escaping that park with only a single run is always an impressive feat no matter how you do it. He had 2 BB’s and 14 K’s in his previous 2 post AS break starts. His total July line: 21.1 IP – 13 H – 6 ER – 0 HR – 5 BB – 15 K – 83 BF. While the numbers might not bear it out, Buchholz, being reasonably priced in the middle of most boards, could have a sneaky good game here. Good Value
Chicago (AL) @ Minnesota 8:10 ET
C.Quintana: When did Target Field get moved to Colorado? How are the Twins hitting like this at home? Quintana has alternated good and terrible starts over his last 5. This would put him in line for a good one if you believe in that sort of thing, but he just pitched poorly (6.1 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 1 BB – 1K) against these Twins last time out.
C.DeVries: DeVries has had 2 very strange games at home, both against Oakland, but the other 2 have been very good. In fact, 4 of his last 5 starts (outside the one he allowed 3 HR’s to Oakland sandwiched in the middle) have been extremely good: at least 6 IP – 1 ER or less. He has walked 12 and struck out 1 since the break. He does seem to have a HR problem (11 in 47 IP this year), which is the main thing keeping off our list today.
Tampa Bay @ Oakland 10:05 ET
D.Price: Price has been great over his last 6 starts, home or road, with at least 7 IP, 2 ER’s or less, and at least 7 K’s. Normally, this would be a terrific spot, but Oakland is on fire and Price is very expensive today.
A.Griffin: Griffin has gone exactly 6 innings in each of his 6 starts and has allowed 3 ER’s once, while allowing 2 or less in each of the other 5. He struck out 9 Blue Jays in his last start, which was the 1st time he’d K’s more than 5, but he has faced some beastly offenses. Neither his BABIP (.230) nor his LOB% (88.4) is real, but he could have a significant drop and still be decent, plus he has a very favorable home park and very favorable matchup today. Some sites have moved him up a bit, but he can still be found on the lower half of some boards. Good Value (price conditional)
Toronto @ Seattle 10:10 ET
R.Romero: I’m not even sure Seattle can save him. The Mariners, by the way, have scored at least 4 in each of their last 4 games, all at home.
H.Iwakuma: He hasn’t been absolutely terrible in his 4 starts (3 @ Safeco), but really has only had 1 good one, the only time he’s pitched past the 5th. That was actually in Tampa Bay where he pitched 6 innings of 2 run ball with 7 K’s. He’s allowed a HR and 3 BB’s in each of his 3 home starts in which he’s gone 5 innings exactly each time.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Miami @ Atlanta 7:10 ET
M.Buehrle: Buerhle had a stretch of very awesome, but very un-Buehrle-like games where he struck out 29 and allowed a total of 3 runs over 4 starts. However, he’s gone a total of 10 IP with 6 ER’s, 5 BB’s and 5 K’s over his last 2.
T.Hanson: There has been a lot of talk, and some writing, about Hanson messing with his mechanics and delivery. It hasn’t worked. He allowed only 1 run his last time out, but 7 walks in 5 innings. That start was against a pretty helpless Miami team though, who he’s facing again today.
San Diego @ Cincinnati 7:10 ET
E.Volquez: Volquez returns to the scene of the crime….well, actually, many crimes…..mostly perpetrated by him. He also faces a red hot Cincinnati team. Even most of his road starts this year have been in pitcher’s parks. This has warning signs written all over it.
M.Leake: The concerning thing here is that Leake has a 29.8 LD% over his last 2 starts (one vs Houston) in which he has allowed 3 HR’s. The Padres, not a terrible road offense, have a 23.8 LD% over the past week. While Leake has been mostly very good for a while now, there seems to be the potential for a lot of hard hit balls here today.
Pittsburgh @ Chicago (NL) 8:05 ET
E.Bedard: Great things from Bedard in his last start (7 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 2 BB – 11 K – 25 BF) also against these Cubs, but not so great stuff for a long time preceding it. The Cubs are almost always a favorable matchup, especially vs LHP, but I’d find it slightly difficult to pull the trigger on Bedard (not literally, cause that would be, like, murder) off of just 1 great start.
J.Germano: Who are you and what have you done with Ryan Dempster. Germano has done some nice work in 8.2 innings out of the pen for the Cubs, but his 261.2 total major league innings paint a much less impressive picture.
Houston @ Milwaukee 8:10 ET
B.Norris: What is Norris still doing in Houston? Well, actually, he’s in Milwaukee tonight, which is probably worse considering he’s been roughed up pretty badly over his last 7 road starts since 5/26 (33 ER in 33 IP – 7 of last 9 starts have been on the road).
M.Estrada: Estrada’s last start didn’t go all that well (4 IP – 5 ER – 0 HR – 3 BB – 4 K), but he’s normally a great source of K’s even if he gives up a few runs and has a great matchup today. Houston had taken to batting Chris Johnson 3rd the past few days and now that he’s been traded, I shudder to think of what their lineup will look like now. As bad as Houston has been, they’ve been even worse on the road. Good Value
Arizona @ Los Angeles (NL) 10:10 ET
T.Cahill: Cahill hasn’t had a quality start since before the break (3 starts). I would love to call it ground ball variance, but he has a pretty strong defense behind him, so it’s hard to tell without seeing him. The Dodgers, and Hanley himself, seem to have been energized by the trade….for now. They ended the week stronger than they began it, with 4 runs or more in each of their last 4 games.
A.Harang: Harang has been pretty good recently and actually for most of the year now that I look. He’s only allowed more than 3 ER’s on 4 occasions this season and never more than 5. There seems to be a decent floor there, although some of his 3 run outings have been pretty ugly. The D’Backs have cooled down a bit and more often than not, you’re going to get pretty much what you paid for from Harang.
New York (NL) @ San Francisco 10:15 ET
J.Hefner: Hefner has shown some flashes of competence in his spot starts this year, with 6 innings of 3 ER’s or less in each of the last 3. He’s allowed 4 HR’s in that span, but that shouldn’t be a problem here. The Giants have hit a wall since losing Sandoval again. They have scored a total of 9 runs in their last 5 games and were shut out the last 2 days. Sleeper Alert
M.Bumgarner: Bumgarner is almost always going to be a go at home. The question is usually how affordable it is. He’s not cheap on Monday, but he’s cheaper than David Price. I’m sure readers are tired of how I’m constantly reiterating how awesome he almost always is at home. He is 1 of only 5 pitchers with Home xFIP’s under 3 over the past 2 years with the 6th best Home wOBA against (.266) since 2011 and all the guys ahead of him are perennial All Stars and Cy Young contenders. Top Value
*Top Values Monday: Madison Bumgarner
Good Values: Marco Estrada, A.J. Griffin, Clay Buchholz
Sleeper Alert: Jeremy Hefner
Top Draft Targets: Bumgarner, David Price, Griffin
*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.
Was glad that Bumgarner allowed me to put at least 1 at the top today.
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