Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Thur. 8-2-2012
Posted on Aug 2nd, 2012 09:42 AM
No vote necessary today. Even though we have some early games, it’s a short 9 game schedule so you get write-ups on them all.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota @ Boston 7:10 ET

S.Deduno: Deduno has allowed only 2 ER’s over his last 13.1 IP almost despite himself. He’s walked 8 and struck out 10. Overall he has a 1.13 K/BB and 28.1 LD%, making his .274 BABIP highly unsustainable.

J.Lester: At first look, Lester’s problems seem to be BABIP and LOB related. His K% is down, but his K/BB (2.65) is still around his normal career rate. His batted ball profile is where it gets alarming though. The BABIP thing would inspire more confidence if it were still the same, but he’s allowed a career high, by far, 23.5 LD% and already surrendered 18 HR’s (his career high is 20). Teams are squaring him up and hitting him harder.

Los Angeles (AL) @ Texas 8:05 ET

C.Wilson: Wilson has obviously had some success in this park in the past, but he never had to face this Texas team in it while having that success. There’s really no aspect of this that rates out as above average.

R.Dempster: Dempster’s 1st AL career start has coincided with a period where he’s been human for only the 2nd time this year (he had a period of 3 starts with 4 or more ER’s previously). He’s allowed 7 ER’s in his last 12 innings, but nobody should be surprised as he’s really been basically the same guy he’s always been, just with results that have exceeded his performance this year, much the opposite of the way they fell far short of his performance last year. Throw out his Home xFIP in the chart obviously. In fact, all his numbers probably go up. This is a very dangerous spot for Texas’s newest acquisition.

Cleveland @ Kansas City 8:10 ET

C.Kluber: I don’t know who Kluber is. Looking at his player page, he’s had 4.1 innings of major league experience last year. He’s been occasionally a high strikeout guy in the minors, but always a high walk guy.

B.Chen: Cleveland has one of the starker L/R team splits in all of baseball. It’s no secret that they have coveted a big RHB for most of the season. They actually haven’t been scoring that much off of any pitcher recently. However, the only reasonable start Chen has had in his last 6 efforts was in Seattle last time out and that was still 3 ER’s in 6 IP. I’d stop short of calling him a good value, but on a short day, he may be your best shot if you’re looking for something on the bottom of the board.

Toronto @ Oakland 10:05 ET

H.Alvarez: The offense seems to have disappeared in Oakland (5 runs total last 4 games). Maybe the hard throwing, high contact stylings of Henderson Alvarez can help them get it back. He’s had some good starts mixed in with the bad, but has been very inconsistent, without back to back quality starts since mid-May.

B.Colon: Colon has struck out exactly 5 in his last 3 starts and walked exactly 1 in the last 3. He’s allowed 4 ER’s and a single HR in 2 of those games, against strong offensive teams (NYY,TEX), but a total of 1 ER in the other 2. As a matter of fact, aside from those 2 starts and one in Colorado, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER’s in the other 6 of his last 9 starts. This is the much less scary Joey Bats-less, big park version of the Blue Jays offense. Good Value

NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Diego @ Cincinnati 12:35 ET

R.Ohlendorff: San Diego pitchers haven’t fared too well in this park so far in this series. I expect Ohlendorff to be no different, so I’ll say the same about him as I did Marquis and Wells before him: Not at Petco, not in my daily fantasy lineup….especially in this ban-box.

J.Cueto: Cueto is coming off his worst start since 5/25, allowing 4 ER’s and 10 hits in 6 IP with just 3 K’s. There’s a problem determining value when I can’t find any sites that are offering the 2 day games, but I’d guess that he’d be fairly expensive vs a San Diego team that has not scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7 games.

New York (NL) @ San Francisco 3:45 ET

C.Young: Young is coming off a terrible outing (6 ER’s in 4 IP in Arizona) where he was just mercilessly pounded by the D’Backs, but he normally does a bit better in larger parks, assuming his outfield can chase down fly balls all day, which is a bit questionable considering Andres Torres is likely out of the lineup with yet another injury. Your probably looking at Valdespin, Hairston, and Bay charged with the task.

B.Zito: The Mets struggle against lefties and Zito has a 101 point difference in his L/R wOBA split. The Mets do have some decent RHB’s in the middle of the order to take advantage of that (Wright, Hairston), but if Zito throws strikes, he can be effective occasionally at home. After walking at least 3 in 5 straight starts, he’s walked a total of 3 with 15 K’s in his last 3 starts (19.1 IP).

Philadelphia @ Washington 7:05 ET

C.Hamels: Hamels signs a big contract and promptly goes out and does this over his last 2 starts: 12.2 IP – 14 H – 8 ER – 4 HR – 9 BB – 13 K – 59 BF. That’s probably not what the Phillies envisioned for well over $100 million. It’ll get better, but the point is that it’s not better right now and he’s the highest priced pitcher on the board.

R.Detwiler: Considering that the Phillies best RHB’s have either been traded or in the case of Ruiz, battling an injury, Detwiler could be effective here today. I won’t hold a short outing in Milwaukee against him as that park is terror for most opposing LHP’s and his peripherals (5 K – 1 BB) were still strong. The Phillies don’t hit lefties and it’ll probably be even worse than normal due to previously mentioned reasons. Good Value

Miami @ Atlanta 7:10 ET

N.Eovaldi: Although he’s only lasted a total of 9.2 innings over his last 2 starts, Eovaldi has only allowed 2 ER’s without a HR, 3 BB’s and 12 K’s in 45 batters over that span. Maybe he’s finally harnessing some of that talent and leaving behind the pressure of pitching in a pennant race may help him develop. The one caveat is that he has only gone a full 6 innings in 1 of his last 6 starts and he’s facing one of the tougher teams in the NL.

M.Minor: It took long enough, but this is finally looking like the Mike Minor that the Braves expected and were looking for. His month of July was pretty phenomenal: 27.1 IP – 16 H – 6 ER – 4 HR – 4 BB – 26 K – 97 BF. Plus, he gets the benefit of facing the Marlins today. The Braves were extremely patient and now it seems they’re being rewarded long after everyone else gave up on him. It may be time to start believing again. Top Value

St Louis @ Colorado 8:40 ET

L.Lynn: Lynn has been very unpredictable since mid-June. He was pounded in his last start and few pitchers cure their problems in Colorado.

Unknown: This was scheduled to be Friedrich, but the Rockies announced he was being pushed back to Saturday, though they have not named a replacement as of late Wednesday night. Pitching in general has been a disaster for Colorado and they 1st tried a 4 man rotation to try and better the situation, but since that hasn’t worked all that well, maybe they’re just going to have nobody pitch tomorrow. Late Note: It looks like Alex White may be the one to receive the beating tonight.

*Top Values Thursday: Mike Minor

Good Values: Bartolo Colon, Ross Detwiler

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Minor, Cole Hamels, Detwiler, Johnny Cueto

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

That’s more than I thought we were going to get out of today. And now, as promised, an early look at Friday’s pitching chart, just in case


 
 
RSS
youtube
twitter
facebook