Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Sun. 8-5-2012
Posted on Aug 5th, 2012 09:35 AM
The 2 pitchers missing in the chart today are Chris Seddon starting for Cleveland, who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2010 and the Colorado Rockies again have refused to name a starter that you wouldn’t want to use anyway.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Remember to check updated wind conditions and weather reports throughout the day. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis?


Four From The Top

D.Price: It’s not often that the most expensive pitcher is also a Top Value, but David Price has been stating his case for a Cy Young award for a while now. He’s gone at least 7 innings with 7 K’s or and 3 ER’s or less in each of his last 7 games. He’s struck out 21 of his last 55 batters with 2 walks. Batters have a .241 wOBA against him at home this season where he has a 27.1 K% and has only allowed more than 2 ER’s once. The Orioles are the worst road offense in the AL. Top Value

S.Strasburg: It’s even rarer that the 2 most expensive pitchers are Top Values, but Strasburg’s price is down because he’s allowed 4 ER’s with 5 K’s or less and a total of 3 HR’s in 2 of his last 3 starts. Reason to worry? Well, in between he just went 7 innings of 4 hit ball with 11 K’s and no walks, so probably not. The Marlins are the 5th worst road offense in baseball and the 2nd worst vs RHP’s. Top Value

J.Blanton: Friday I wrote the following about Blanton who was scheduled to start for the Phillies:

“Can Joe Blanton keep the ball in the park? He has in 2 of his last 3 and has only allowed more than 1 HR in 5 of his last 6. Not so coincidentally, he’s only allowed more than 3 ER’s in 1 of his last 6 (not that same start). He’s struck out at least 6 in each of his last 9 starts now while walking more than 1 only once. If you think he can keep the ball on the corners and off the middle of the plate, good things are in store as the D’Backs strike out 4th most often in the NL. “

All that remains valid except that the Cubs strike out 20.6% of the time instead of 21.1% like the D’backs, which puts them right in the middle of the pack in the NL. However, pitching in LA may slightly improve Blanton’s defense, where he’s reunited with Victorino and keep more balls in the yard. Good Value

Matt Harvey: Just 11.1 innings into his major league career, Harvey is already sitting in the top third of most boards, with great justification too. He’s struggled with control at times, but has 18 K’s in 11.1 IP (47 BF) with a 14.3 SwStr%. He probably could have gotten out of SF without even allowing an ER, if his defense didn’t betray him on several occasions. Now he has an even more favorable situation going today in Petco. Top Value

Two From The Middle

K.Medlen: Medlen had a very efficient 5 inning starting debut last time out, facing only 19 batters. He has perhaps an even better matchup today. 79 batters had a .212 wOBA vs him in July to go along with 2 ER’s in 21.1 IP and Houston is just all kinds of terrible on the road. Good Value

T.Milone: Milone had his 1st bad home start of the season last time out because, you know, it was the 1st time I’d recommended him all season of course. He’s now allowed 10 ER’s over his last 13 IP, but that still comes with just 1 BB and 11 K’s. He’s facing a Blue Jays team that just has not done anything with the bats on this road trip. Good Value

One From The Bottom

J.Marquis: It’s happened over and over again. Marquis gets blasted on the road and then comes home to a basement price where he performs adequately. He got blasted in Cincinnati last time out for 3 HR’s, but his peripherals were very good over his last 2 starts (13 K – 3 BB – 13.2 IP – 56 BF). He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in 5 Petco starts now, but don’t go entirely nuts with that as he’s gone 5 innings with 3 ER’s in his last 2 home starts and has now allowed 7 unearned runs in those 5 Petco starts. Top Value

M.Gonzalez: I made an error in forgetting that Gonzalez wasn’t feeling well 2 starts ago vs Tampa Bay. It wouldn’t have made much of a difference in Yankee Stadium, but perhaps I wouldn’t have treated him so harshly and he did, in fact, have a decent enough showing. He allowed 3 HR’s and 4 ER’s overall in 6.2 IP, but did not walk a batter and struck out 8. This is much better as popups won’t go over the wall and the Rays have scored just 2 runs in the first 2 games of this series so far. Sleeper Alert

*Top Values for Sunday: Matt Harvey, Stephen Strasburg, Jason Marquis, David Price

Good Values: Joe Blanton, Kris Medlen, Tommy Milone

Sleeper Alert: Miguel Gonzalez

Top Draft Targets: Price, Strasburg, Harvey, Cliff Lee, Blanton, Max Scherzer

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

I guess we’re making up for having no Top Values again the past 2 days, as has now happened 2 consecutive Sunday’s in a row.

 
 
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