This is as full a schedule as you’re going to get on a Monday. 26 of 30 teams are in action today and we have some #1’s (Verlander, Cain) and so called #1’s (Darvish) with significant price drops today. So are they worth their new, lower price?

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.

S.Diamond: Diamond is your lowest walk rate and 2^nd lowest HR/FB on the board today, has a nice park to pitch in today, and Cleveland has been absolutely terrible, although they did score 8 on Sunday (and still lost). They haven’t hit lefties all season. His K%, which is already low, drops all the way down to 11.9% on the road and the opponent’s wOBA jumps to .337, with a hike in xFIP too. Without the K’s, it might be difficult for him to provide much value in excess of his price tag.

Z.McAllister: Inconsistency is the only negative I can find in McAllister’s profile. His LD% is slightly high, but his LOB% (63.3) is slightly low. His SIERA profiles as an average pitcher, but he can probably be better than that with the nice 3.44 K/BB this year. The Twins are the 2^nd toughest team to K in the majors though. It gets slightly easier on the road, but they’re still a tough offense to handle as they’ve scored at least 4 runs in each of their last 4 games on their current road trip.  

I.Nova: Nova’s been all over the map lately and there’s a lot of red in that line above.

J.Verlander: This may be the 1^st slump we’ve seen from Verlander in 2 years. His last 2 starts: 12 IP – 14 H – 7 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 10 K – 55 BF. I expect him to snap back, but this is the Yankees, so maybe wait until next start, when his price may drop even further with another mediocre outing.

J.Vargas: I just wrote about Vargas in the July SIERA report. The main point was to stay away from him in small parks. His last 6 starts have been in pitcher’s havens.

C.Tillman: I don’t get Seattle. I really don’t get Seattle. Now they start hitting at home in that big ballpark, then go on the road and score 6 runs in 3 games at Yankee Stadium. Sabathia and Kuroda are tough enough to shut down anyone at this point, but Freddy Garcia? Tillman has been sketchy and his velocity has dropped with each start….and not just small drops either. It’s almost 5 mph overall now and he’s barely above 90.

Y.Darvish: Can we please stop this nonsense about how great Yu Darvish is. He seems to be no different than any other Nippon League import who can’t find the strike zone. He’ll have days where he strikes out a bunch of batters and gets away with it, but that walk rate is atrocious and will come back to hurt him more often than not against good offenses.

A.Cook: He’s struck out 4 batters in 8 starts. He’s allowed 6 HR’s in just his last 3. Exactly half his fly balls have left the yard over that span. Yeah, that stuff may normalize over time, but that’s if he makes the necessary adjustment and doesn’t pitch himself out of the league first.

L.Mendoza: He’s occasionally been able to pop a good one off, but on the whole….bleh.

C.Sale: Sale is another velocity dropper and missed a start because of “dead arm” last time out. I’m not even saying he’s injured, but one skipped start is the way it starts and they’ve been concerned about him all season. He’s become a high priced, daily fantasy risk.

J.Weaver: You can still trust Weaver to get the job done in big parks, although I’ll continue to stress that he is not the Ace he used to be. K-rate down, LD% up, BABIP down? Doesn’t make much sense, except for the awesomeness of an outfield with several CF’s. It’s tough to spend the big bucks on him now, but he should be able to prevent runs.

J.Parker: Parker’s ERA has been creeping up closer to his SIERA, although I still expect him to beat it at home. This LA offense is just a beast. Sunday was the 1^st time they failed to score at least 6 runs in 7 games.

W.Miley: The Pirates had a nice little road trip where they didn’t necessarily crush the ball, but scored at least 4 runs in 9 of 10 games. They still have the 2^nd worst offense in the majors at home and Miley will make them work by not walking many and striking out enough to make himself useful for our purposes. His price is not entirely enviable on some sites however. Look for him closer to the middle, rather than near the top. Good Value (price conditional)

E.Bedard: Bedard got Wrigley with the wind blowing out last start and was hammered…on the balls they hit. Over his last 2 starts, he has 18 K’s in 49 batters. The K’s were what had been missing from his game for almost 2 months. Now that they seem to be back and he’s in a favorable home park against a weak road team at a very reasonable price there’s a lot of reason to like this despite Arizona’s proficiency vs LHP’s. There’s certainly risk, but there’s a ton of potential here in a decent spot at a good price. Top Value

B.Sheets: Sheets had a rough 1^st inning last time, but settled down nicely and ended up with a season high 8 K’s. The 27.9 LD% is concerning, but he’s already pitched well against Philly and this lineup has little left in it to scare you. Sheets has not allowed a HR yet in 4 starts. I don’t expect him to keep going like this forever, but I’m comfortable to roll with it while it lasts in decent enough spots. Good Value

V.Worley: Worley may not have allowed an earned run in his last start, but he failed to strike out a single batter. Maybe it makes up for striking out 9, but giving up 6 ER’s 3 starts back. Atlanta has been possibly the hottest team in the NL over the last 2 weeks.

E.Jackson: The Houston offense has been decent enough at home to cause problems on occasion, while Jackson has been erratic enough to do the same….on occasion.

D.Keuchel: I’m confident enough to call Keuchel the worst starting pitcher in the NL and maybe the majors right now. And yes, that includes Blackburn.

B.Arroyo: Arroyo’s peripherals, if not his results, have become inconsistent in recent starts and Milwaukee is always a tough matchup for opposing pitchers.

Y.Gallardo: He would have made the cut today, until I realized his last start (at home) was against Houston who maybe the worst road team of the last decade or more and he got clobbered vs Washington at home just before that. He’s still very close, but may be facing the hottest team in the NL since the break (I know I just said that about Atlanta, but that’s why I said maybe and left doubt in both cases). The offense without Votto and Phillips for a few days now has cooled down a bit.

M.Cain: Matt Cain continues to be not so good since the greatest game ever pitched. This is not where pitchers go to get better.

J.Westbrook: MLB.com had Lynn listed last night and I just found out it’s Westbrook, so you can all complain to Bud Selig about the error in the chart. SF’s offense is probably over-valued coming out of Coors Field right now, but coincidentally, Westbrook’s last start, probably is worst of the season, also took place in Coors which probably gives us a situation where he is under-valued right now. That’s the perfect combination to get some good value out of Westbrook at a decent price today. Good Value

T.Wood: Wood has been pretty awful over the past month, allowing 11 HR’s in his last 5 starts. This might seem like a good spot, but not as much with the Padres having their RH hitting lineup in there vs the lefty as Petco plays closer to normal for the righties.

E.Stults: Stults hasn’t started a game since June 3^rd, although he has made 2 relief appearances this month already. I have no idea how long he’ll last, but unlikely more than 5 innings, whether that’s due to a pitch count or performance. That’s really my excuse to not have to try and predict which is will be  worse, Stults or the Cubs offense.

D.Pomeranz: The new Dodger offense is starting to kick it in gear with 16 runs vs the Cubs over a 3 game weekend set. Pomeranz has only had 4 road starts this season and 2 of them have been really poor showings in San Diego so he’s tough to judge away from Coors. We do know that Colorado still has that silly pitch count thing and 4-man rotation going though so even at best, it’ll be tough to get all that much out of him.

C.Capuano: Capuano has gotten beaten up in his last 2 outings, one of them at home, but he is normally excellent at home this year. It’s a great ball park for LHP’s and you would have lost a lot of money this year believing anything Colorado ever does at home will carry over to a pitcher’s park. Good Value

*Top Values Saturday: Erik Bedard

Good Values: Ben Sheets, Wade Miley (price conditional), Chris Capuano, Jake Westbrook

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Jered Weaver, Bedard, Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Miley, Capuano

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

I was honestly tempted to use Bedard and Capuano as Sleepers today due to the risk and hidden value in them, but felt that both veterans had too much of a track record for that to make enough sense. Just make sure to read the write-ups and know what what you might be getting into. Today has some great potential, but a little more risk than usual.