Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Thur. 8-9-2012
Posted on Aug 9th, 2012 09:38 AM
I don’t know why they insist on these 12 ET start times. Nobody likes them. The players hate them, or so I’ve heard. I hate them as they make writing this article more difficult. You hate them too. And if you don’t, let me know so that I can convince you that you do. The amazing fact of the day is that 5 teams scored double digit runs last yesterday and they were all road teams.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York (AL) @ Detroit 1:05 ET

H.Kuroda: Kuroda has been very solid for the Yankees, but the Tigers continue to crush everyone who takes the mound against them. It’s 7 consecutive games with 6 runs or more now.

D.Fister: With an ERA almost half a run higher, it’s hard to see how Fister has been even better than Kuroda this year, but when you remove the defense, he has. The defense seems to have even caught up lately as he’s allowed exactly 1 ER in 4 of his last 5 starts in which he’s also struck out least 6 and gone at least 7 innings. The Yankees are one of the few teams I wouldn’t recommend Fister against, and even then it’s close.

Toronto @ Tampa Bay 1:10 ET

H.Alvarez: Alvarez has been incredibly inconsistent for most of the season. Sometimes he allows a lot of runs, sometimes he doesn’t. Sometimes he walks batters, sometimes he doesn’t. Sometimes he allows HR’s, sometimes he doesn’t. He has only struck out more than 4 once this year though, so at least he’s consistent in that way.

M.Moore: I want to believe in Moore here, who has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 4 straight starts now, but has only gone more than 6.1 once and has a pedestrian 2.2 K/BB over that span. The Blue Jays have scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 9, but Moore does not come cheap today.

Boston @ Cleveland 7:05 ET

F.Doubront: Doubront against the worst team against LHP in the AL is also someone you’d want to like, but he too has been incredibly inconsistent, does not go deep into many ball games, and walks a lot of batters. One thing Cleveland does do is take walks vs lefties. They have the 2nd highest rate in the majors.

U.Jimenez: Each time he pitches, I look at his line and stare at his recent starts trying to find something nice to say. I can’t. I can’t even find anything funny about it anymore. Cleveland’s starting pitching acquisitions over the last year have gone worse than they ever could have possibly imagined.

Kansas City @ Baltimore 7:05 ET

W.Smith: The Orioles have won 5 in a row and scored 17 runs over their last 2 games. Smith has gone 7 innings only once, allowed at least 4 ER’s in 4 of his 7 starts, and hasn’t pitched in a real hitter’s park since his debut in Yankee Stadium.

W.Chen: I’m still more cautious about a guy that rarely breaches 90 mph and frequently pitches up in the zone in Baltimore. It’s possible that he’s an exception to the rule, but it takes a long time to be confident in something that rare. Yet, the results have been good thus far. However, aside from his 12 K effort 2 starts back, he’s struck out 5 or less in 5 of his last 6, so it’s not like he’s deceptively throwing the ball past hitters. Being LH is another feather in his cap against the Royals. His starts at home almost always seem very dangerous to me though.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Miami @ New York (NL) 12:10 ET

J.Johnson: In 2 of Johnson’s last 3 starts, he’s struck out 9 and walked none. In the other, he walked 6. Games this early have a way of not bringing out the best in a defense and Johnson, like nearly half the board today, is quite expensive.

R.Dickey: The Mets defense doesn’t seem aware most the times in night games, so how might they react this early in the day? Dickey has been back to his phenomenal self over the last 2 starts, but this game has the potential to be ugly and this is your top priced guy.

San Francisco @ St Louis 1:45 ET

M.Bumgarner: Pitching in St Louis hasn’t seemed to phase Giant pitchers so far. Bumgarner has had 2 high quality road starts in a row, including his last one in Colorado. His last 4 starts total feature 2 ER’s or less with at least 7 K’s, making him harder to cast aside than I thought he’d be today. He’s still priced just a bit to highly vs an extremely dangerous team with a lot of power from the RH side.

A.Wainwright: SF scored 15 runs last night and at least 8 in 4 of their last 6, but 3 of those games were in Colorado and last night was against a pitcher who was way over-due for a beating. Wainwright seems to be improving with each start. He’s allowed more than 2 ER’s only once in his last 8 home starts only failing to strike out at least 7 and allowing a HR once in those efforts as well. Good Value

Arizona @ Pittsburgh 4:05 ET

J.Saunders: Decent spot for Saunders as a lefty in Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have now scored at least 4 runs in 13 of their last 14 games. They haven’t been crushing the ball as much as making it uncomfortable to select opposing pitchers. Similarly, Saunders has been just good enough to get by most times.

W.Rodriguez: Wandy is pitching his 1st game in Pittsburgh as a member of the Pirates, which, again as a lefty, would also seem like a fine spot. Arizona hits lefties very well though and Rodriguez too seems to be just good enough to get by most times. He’s allowed at least 3 ER’s in 7 of his last 8 with between 4 and 6 strikeouts 7 times as well.

Cincinnati @ Chicago (NL) 8:05 ET

M.Leake: Leake has allowed at least 4 ER’s in 3 of his last 4 starts, but has a 6.0 K/BB or better in 2 of his last 3. He’s also been hurt by the long ball more than a ground baller should lately as well. This Chicago team though, has scored 1 run or less in 5 of its last 8 games and been shut out in 2 of the last 3. They are the 6th worst home offense and 2nd worst vs RHP in the majors. It’s just so hard to lay off with a reasonable price. Good Value

C.Volstad: Volstad is your low man on the board today and he deserves it with the way he’s pitched for the Cubs this year. However, the Reds have finally hit the skids like many expected them too after losing Votto. They’ve lost 4 in a row, scoring a total of 8 runs. Volstad may have just thrown his best game of the year in LA last time out and only has to hold it together and limit the damage for 5 innings or so to exceed his value against the Reds tonight. This is much more about the price and opposition than the pitcher’s own merit. Top Value

Washington @ Houston 8:05 ET

J.Zimmermann: Zimmerman has allowed more than 3 ER’s in a game only 3 times this year, and coincidentally it seems like his few bad starts have been the only times I’ve been on him. I’ll do everyone a favor and stay clear or him then tonight so he can get back to being the dominant pitcher he was for over a month before his last start, snapping a string of 7 straight starts with 1 ER or less. The only legitimate reason to bypass him tonight though is that he’s a not so high strikeout guy at a high price.

L.Harrell: It’s now 7 of 8 starts with 2 ER’s or less for Harrell, striking out at least 5 in as many. He’s had some control issues at time and just 5 K’s in each of his last 2, accounting for his high SIERA lately, but he’s also the top ground baller in play today, allowing himself many opportunities to erase those walks on double plays. He’s also allowed just 2 HR’s over that 8 game span. He’s in a decent spot against a Washington offense that seems to be just getting by due to pitching. I’ll keep calling his name until he gives me ample reason not to as long as the price stays reasonable. Good Value

*Top Values Thursday: Chris Volstad

Good Values: Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake, Lucas Harrell

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Wainwright, Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Zimmermann

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

A large portion of the board is priced expensively today, but I think we’ve been able to work around it nicely. 

 

 
RSS
youtube
twitter
facebook