Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Mon. 8-13-2012
Posted on Aug 13th, 2012 11:44 AM
The dog days of summer are coming to end as we’re coming into the home stretch as all the major moves are probably done with and we now know who these teams will be (at least roster-wise, if not performance wise) down the stretch. There are several interesting matchups on today’s abbreviated schedule.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas @ New York (AL) 7:05 ET

R.Dempster: It’s usually nice for Ranger pitchers to get out of Texas for a start, but not in this case. Dempster ends up in the Bronx today against the 2nd best home offense in baseball and the best vs RHP. Not the best scenario for a pitcher who has allowed 6 HR’s over his last 4 starts (23.1 IP), even if he has struck out 18 in his last 3 (17.1 IP).

D.Phelps: Phelps has been one of the better relievers in the AL and has had some success as a starter too, but isn’t stretched out to go deep in a ball game right now. He’s started 3 games this year and although he pitched well in all 3 (13 IP – 11 H – 3 ER – 1 HR – 7 BB – 16 K – 58 BF), he failed to complete 5 innings in any of them.

Chicago (AL) @ Toronto 7:07 ET

J.Peavy: Peavy is no stranger to pitching in tough parks and Toronto scored more than 2 runs for only the 2nd time in 6 games Sunday, but you’re being asked to pay a lot for a pitcher who has allowed at least 3 ER’s in 5 of his last 8 starts. He has faced Toronto twice this season and while the end results were good each time, he did walk a season high 5 in one of those starts. There’s no reason not to expect another quality start from him, but maybe not an elite one.

C.Villanueva: Villanueva continues to bring the K’s, which has definite value, but may occasionally struggle with other aspects of pitching. He has not gone past 6.1 IP in any of his 7 starts, walks too many (although the White Sox are not a patient bunch), and being a fly ball pitcher with a 12.9 HR/FB in this park will do him no favors. His last 2 starts were in 2 of the friendliest pitcher’s parks in the league (Sea, TB), which may make his numbers look a bit better than they are in this spot. He’s still fairly cheap on some sites though and may not make a bad pick up near the bottom of the board where the K’s may be enough.

Detroit @ Minnesota 8:10 ET

A.Sanchez: Sanchez has gotten hammered in 2 of his 3 starts for his new team and now travels to face the 4th best home offense in the majors (that’s right, they’ve slumped down 3 spots over the weekend). Obviously he’s not this bad a pitcher and facing 2 AL East teams isn’t going to make many pitchers look better, but I don’t know how he can be trusted here.

S.Deduno: Deduno may be the luckies pitcher in the majors, at least until last time out. He has a 0.88 K/BB, but his ERA looks nice due to a .247 BABIP and 84.4 LOB%. He’s allowed 23 LD’s and 4 HR’s, but only 27 total hits this year. He should get crushed.

Cleveland @ Los Angeles (AL) 10:05 ET

J.Masterson: He’s bad against LHB’s, but luckily the Angels don’t have too many threats from that side. He’s even worse though on the road (14 IP – 24 H – 19 ER – 2 HR – 13 BB – 7 K – 79 BF last 3 away).

C.Wilson: Cleveland would be a good team to throw a competent lefty against, but Wilson has been awful lately. His problem has been walks (17 in his last 29.2 IP – 31 K’s). This is the one area where the Indians excel.

Tampa Bay @ Seattle 10:10 ET

A.Cobb: Yes, Alex Cobb in Seattle! His results are matching the performance and much more now. His last 2 starts totaled 14 IP – 9 H – 2 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 13 K – 54 BF. He doesn’t even need to be his usual ground ball machine self here. Although they have been a bit better lately, the Mariners are still the worst home offense in baseball by a large margin. Top Value

B.Beavan: Beavan snapped a streak of 3 straight quality starts his last time out. He continues to be a poor man’s Joe Blanton, except it’s time to throw a party when he strikes out more than 4 and he sometimes finds a way to allow HR’s in Safeco. The Rays are a scorching hot offense since getting Longoria back.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles (AL) @ Pittsburgh 7:05 ET

A.Harang: Harang can’t find the plate (14 BB last 23.1 IP) and that makes him incredibly unpredictable. In fact, he’s walked at least 4 in 5 of his last 10.

J.Karstens: Karstens has been another inconsistent pitcher, alternating good and bad starts over the past more or so. After allowing 1 HR in his first 8 starts, he’s allowed 4 over his last 3. The K-rate is unspectacular, but the LD rate (25.7%) along with the increased HR’s is something to be concerned about. The Dodgers are a good opponent to be facing though, as their lineup remake doesn’t seem to have done much yet.

San Diego @ Atlanta 7:10 ET

E.Stults: It’s unlikely you’ll covet San Diego pitchers on the road in many situations.

M.Minor: The numbers, at least for the last 2 weeks, are somewhat skewed due to a rain shortened start 11 days ago. Aside from that, it’s been 5 straight quality starts for Minor, although he’s allowed a HR in each one. The 5.17 K/BB that goes along with that is very strong as well. San Diego is near the bottom of the league vs LHP, but a much improved offense overall. Middle of the board or lower and Minor is decent gamble, if you can find that.

Philadelphia @ Miami 7:10 ET

C.Hamels: Not that anybody doubted it would happen, but Cole Hamels, coming off 2 great starts, seems to have straighted himself out and is in a great spot today. He’s best on the board in almost every category today and close in most that he is not. He’s struck out at least 6 in all but 3 starts this year. Miami is 6th worst in the majors vs LHP and just pretty bad overall. Hamels is the top man on the board in some places today and I’d fully expect him to pitch like it. Good Value

N.Eovaldi: Eovaldi somehow walked 6 in 5 innings his last time out and didn’t allow a run. Prior to that he lasted 2 innings and allowed 6 ER’s. He’s lasted a total of 12.1 innings in his 3 Miami starts, but as bad as he’s been, he may not even be the worst pitcher on the board today…..

Houston @ Chicago (NL) 8:05 ET

A.Galarraga: (Continuing from above)….that’s because Armando Galarraga has no business being anywhere near a major league mound. His 18.2 BB rate is an enviable K-rate for some pitchers. When he throws the ball over the plate, it often leaves the park as well.

J.Samardzija: Samardzija has been really good since the beginning of July with only a single hiccup and gets the 3rd worst road offense in the majors, who seem to be getting worse by the day. With the demotion of J.D. Martinez, the entire top half of their lineup from early in the season (Schaefer, Lowrie, Martinez, Lee) is now gone. This looks to be the offensive version of San Diego’s pitching staff. Good Value

Milwaukee @ Colorado 8:40 ET

M.Fiers: Fiers excels through deception and as a fly ball pitcher with a miniscule HR rate. He has been exceptional, but a lot of knowledgeable people are still very cautious on him, believing that he can’t continue to be a softer tossing Matt Cain for very long. Not that his home park is any pitcher’s haven, but he really hasn’t had many road starts at all (4), never mind extreme hitter’s parks. This will be a great test for him.

J.Francis: Francis has been awful and I’d throw the Brewers road numbers out and concentrate that they are the 2nd best lefty mashing offense in the majors in the best hitter’s park in the world.

Washington @ San Francisco 10:15 ET

G.Gonzalez: Gio continues to get the love from the daily fantasy sites, who still see him as this strikeout machine and seem to ignore his other issues. However, he has pitched well (17 K – 2 BB – 0 HR) and gone deep in his last 2 starts (17 IP) and gets to pitch in a very favorable park tonight against the 2nd worst home offense in baseball. It is not particularly as limiting to RH power though and the Giants now lean RH with the addition of Pence and have scored at least 8 runs in 6 of their 10 games, including 9 in each of their last 2 which were at home.

R.Vogelsong: It’s not as much that I don’t believe what Vogelsong is doing anymore as much that he does without the skills that give a pitcher his daily fantasy value. He may excel at getting soft contact (the .246 BABIP and 84.2 LOB% are still unsustainable over a long period of time though), but his K rate is below league average and his walk rate is right around average. It’s run prevention at a high price without much to back it up and pile up the points.

*Top Values Monday: Alex Cobb

Good Values: Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija

Sleeper Alert: None

Top Draft Targets: Hamels, Cobb, Gio Gonzalez, Samardzija, Jake Peavy

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

Enough decent options to jump on a few and lineup against a few today and as I finish this, I just see that the Yankees have signed Derek Lowe. That should certainly be interesting.

 
 
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