Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Tue. 8-14-2012
Posted on Aug 14th, 2012 12:21 PM
We’ve got a full day ahead of us, as it is on every Tuesday, so without wasting time, let’s get right to it. Small talk and jokes are for abbreviated schedules.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 ET

J.Beckett: Can we figure out what’s wrong with Josh Beckett already. He has to be injured, right? I think he’s an easy skip for the rest of the season, unless something crazy happens like him going on a tear (sp?) for the next month.

W.Chen: It may have taken all season, but Chen finally got smacked at home last time out. Both his xFIP (HR/FB normalizing) and FIP (non-HR/FB normalizing) at home are 4.4 this season, well above his ERA. It’s just so hard to believe that a fly ball pitcher who throws low 90’s up in the zone isn’t going to be punished occasionally in this park.

Texas @ New York (AL) 7:05 ET

M.Harrison: Harrison is a pitch to contact guy, already reducing his daily fantasy value in general, but now he’s coming off 3 starts in his last 4 with at least 4 ER’s and finds himself in Yankee Stadium. Not good.

H.Kuroda: I tend to want to throw the Rangers’ road numbers away in a small park, but they struggled again last night and Kuroda has been fantastic for the Yankees. He’s only allowed a HR in 1 of his last 8 home starts. Let that sink in. There’s a good chance Kuroda will throw up another quality start here, but again, the Texas offense can bust out in a small park at any time. Probably better than you’d think though.

Chicago (AL) @ Toronto 7:07 ET

J.Quintana: The only thing that would make you consider this is Toronto’s recent offensive woes….which have really been going on for a while now. After a nice start, Quintana has come back down to earth over his last 7 (4 ER+ 4 times, 2 K’s or less 3 times).

H.Alvarez: 8 BB’s, 3 K’s last 2 starts.

Detroit @ Minnesota 8:10 ET

D.Fister: An interesting comparison to Mike Mussina written about Fister last week. The improvement has been noticed over the past few months, but I never made this connection, though it fits. He’s not just a ground baller anymore and it helps when you don’t have to depend on this defense as much. But after last night, Minnesota is again tied atop the home wRC+ rankings this year. Who knows why they’re so good there, but they are.

B.Duensing: I’d like to go on a rant about Deduno, who got away with 5 BB’s last night, but I won’t because it’s one of those rants where you just clench your fists and your face turns red while you make sounds that aren’t words, which is the kind of thing that doesn’t come off well on paper. Duensing has been slightly competent in his latest go round in the rotation (3 starts), but still not worth your time or salary cap dollars.

Oakland @ Kansas City 8:10 ET

J.Parker: It’s so odd that as Parker’s K/BB has improved this season, his results have gone the other way. Anyway, he offers you little value on the road and even though this seems like a pitcher’s park, the Royals hit well at home.

M.Guthrie: All of a sudden, Guthrie has been steady at 93.5 on the radar gun since leaving Colorado, but he still has a lot of convincing to do. He was better on the road, but not great and even though his last 2 starts were good, his first 2 for the Royals were pretty terrible.

Cleveland @ Los Angeles (AL) 10:05 ET

U.Jimenez: Speaking of someone who has a lot of convincing to do….one 10 K, 1 BB performance (in which he allowed 3 ER’s in 6 IP by the way) makes up for a year plus of garbage? The answer is absolutely not.

Z.Greinke: I say, “Greinke’s ready to roll” and he thanks me by going out and having his 2 worst starts of the season….both on the road. This is a good spot, but I don’t know, does Greinke feel like this is home yet? Even when he’s taken road beatings in the past, his peripherals are still normally strong, but not last start. It was only the 2nd start this season where he’s walked more than he’s struck out. I want to like him, but just can’t trust him right now.

Tampa Bay @ Seattle 10:10 ET

M.Moore: This is finally the Matt Moore we were expecting over a decent stretch now. He’s given up a total of 3 ER’s over his last 4 starts (25.2 IP) and the control has been better (7 BB) with at least 6 K’s each time. Tonight he pitches in a park that occasionally makes Jason Vargas look like an All Star against the worst home offense in baseball. It’s just that he’s now shot up near the top of the board. I wanted to disregard his road xFIP from the chart, but he amazingly has only had 2 AL East road starts this year, with the most recent one coming on May 12th. For the most part, his road starts have come in pitcher’s parks. Close, but the price in most places makes it borderline.

K.Millwood: I generally think Millwood is…maybe under-appreciated is the right word….especially at home, but he has been blasted in his last 2 starts (both on the road) and Tampa Bay is on fire.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles (AL) @ Pittsburgh 7:05 ET

C.Billingsley: I’ve become a bit of a Billingsley fan lately, but he still retains a pretty hefty price tag even after getting hit around a bit in his last start.

K.Corriea: Maybe the new Dodger offense is finally starting to pick it up? 5 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games and Kevin Corriea continues to back up his whining about going to the bullpen with more of that sub-standard pitching that he’s famous for.

New York (NL) @ Cincinnati 7:10 ET

C.Young: Young is a fly ball pitcher who has been battered around a bit lately, whose HR’s have gotten out of control, pitching in a small park today. It might be important to note that he’s up to 68.1 IP now and hasn’t pitched this many since 2009 (76.1 IP).

M.Latos: I still have trouble believing in the Mets as the 4th best road offense in the majors and the 7th best vs RHP, but everything else about Latos looks good here. The Mets have been slumping and Latos has done this over his last 4 starts: 27.1 IP – 19 H – 5 ER – 2 HR – 9 BB – 24 K – 109 BF. Sure, 3 of those starts were on the road, but all in hitter’s parks (HOU, COL, MIL). Good Value

Philadelphia @ Miami 7:10 ET

K.Kendrick: He’s been pretty awful in 2 starts back in the rotation.

J.Johnson: Johnson has rebounded from a rough start to have as good a year as anyone probably could have expected from him this season. He’s solid at home, he’s been solid over the last 4 starts (25.2 IP – 5 ER – 8 BB – 26 K). There’s no reason not to like him today, but it just feels like he’s priced fairly accurately between the top quarter and third of most boards I’ve seen.

San Diego @ Atlanta 7:10 ET

C.Richard: The Atlanta wRC+ over the last 7 days is a little mis-leading. They’ve scored scored at least 4 in 6 of their last 8. While his left-handedness gives him a park and matchup advantage here, Richard has returned to being his normal usable at home, not good on the road self after some bizzarro stuff there where he was the opposite for about a month.

T.Hudson: Aside from the fact that Hudson was terrible in Philadelphia in his last start, he’s only struck out even 5 in 1 of his last 8 starts. With an ERA closer to 4 than 3 this year, he doesn’t even give you the run prevention that he normally does, even further diminishing his daily fantasy value. This Padre team continues to be under-rated in my opinion. Betcha didn’t know Chase Headley has the 11th best wRC+ in the NL. Put this team in a neutral park, with an average staff, and I bet they’re over .500.

Houston @ Chicago (NL) 8:05 ET

L.Harrell: After 3 straight starts of 1 ER, Harrell has followed up with 3 straight starts of 2 ER’s and he looks to be in a great spot tonight. So why am I jumping off? He hasn’t gone more than 6 innings in any of the last 3 starts and has only a 1.5 K/BB. He seems to still have some control issues that need to be solved to keep his pitch count reasonable enough to allow him to go deeper into games. He’s moved far enough up the board now too to where he’s probably properly valued in most places.

C.Volstad: Volstad has returned to the majors with a vengeance! Well, no, not really, but he has been useful in his 2 starts. That’s all the Cubs ask of him and now he gets the 3rd worst road offense in the majors. Volstad’s no All Star and probably not even a league average pitcher, but he shouldn’t be scraping the bottom against the Astros either. Top Value

Arizona @ St Louis 8:15 ET

I.Kennedy: Kennedy’s HR problems have resurfaced (4 HR last 2 starts – both on the road) and he only has 4 K’s to go along with 4 BB’s over his last 2 starts as well. Even though they’ve been down a bit lately, you generally don’t want to try and work out your problems against this St Louis offense.

J.Kelly: Kelly is another mind boggler. He allowed more than 2 ER’s only once through his first 8 starts, but had a 1.5 K/BB with 5 HR’s allowed. Now, over his last 3, he’s allowed at least 3 ER’s all 3 times, but with a 3.25 K/BB and no HR’s allowed. Look further and you find 27 ground balls to 4 fly balls and 9 line drives over his last 2 starts. While I was anti-Kelly when the results were over his head, I now believe it may be the other way around and smell some hidden value here. Sleeper Alert

Milwaukee @ Colorado 8:40 ET

R.Wolf: This should save me a few minutes.

T.Chatwood: Neither of these pitcher’s is worth discussing.

Washington @ San Francisco 10:15 ET

J.Zimmermann: Now we reach the premiere pitching matchup of the day. Zimmermann, who seems to excel at driving me crazy by following up a rare bad outing where I was on him, with his most dominant start of the year after I jumped off, finds himself in one of the top pitcher’s parks in the majors. He’s entered himself into the Cy Young discussion and is making Nats fans feel a little more secure about the impending Strasburg shutdown. 1 ER or less in 8 of his last 9 starts….what else can you say? How about a total of 1 HR over that span and just 3 walks over his last 6 starts? The chance of a ball leaving the yard tonight is almost nil. Good Value

M.Bumgarner: I’m really expecting a 1-0 game here. Bumgarner matches Zimmermann’s dominance with his own. We all know how awesome he’s been at home for over 2 years now. His home K/BB (5.11) since the start of 2011 is exceeded only by Halladay, Lee, Greinke, and Sabathia. Add that to the best HR rate in the majors at home (0.36 HR/9) over that span. Good Value

*Top Values Monday: Chris Volstad

Good Values: Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Zimmermann, Mat Latos

Sleeper Alert: Joe Kelly

Top Draft Targets: Bumgarner, Zimmermann, Matt Moore, Latos, Josh Johnson

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

It took a while, but we finally got to some worthwhile stuff at the end.

 
 
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