Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitter Analysis Wed. 8-15-2012
Posted on Aug 15th, 2012 10:06 AM
It looks like it’s all going to come from the NL tonight. The AL seems to be throwing out journeymen, replacements, and rejects just from looking at the names. That’s without looking at the prices and digging a little yet. Let’s see if we can find something salvageable in there.
A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 ET
A.Cook: A groundball pitcher (2.75 GB/FB), who doesn’t strike anyone out (6 K’s – 214 BF) and gives up HR’s (18.2 HR/FB). What use is he?
M.Gonzalez: The only 2 starts he’s allowed more than 3 ER’s were one where he was sick and then at Yankee Stadium. A bit of a long ball issue and maybe walks too many, but I’m a bit higher on Gonzalez than the line in his chart. Still, it’s Boston in a small ball park against an extreme fly ball pitcher.
Texas @ New York (AL) 7:05 ET
S.Feldman: You just can’t.
F.Garcia: The Chief has been pretty useful since his return to the rotation. Texas has scored 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 5. You still have to respect their power in this park though. It’s better to miss a decent start from Garcia than get caught in a monsoon.
Chicago (AL) @ Toronto 7:07 ET
G.Floyd: Floyd has walked at least 3 in all 4 starts since returning from the DL for a total of 17 with 13 K’s in 25 IP. His last 2 starts have been a bit better though and Toronto is starving for offense.
R.Romero: There is some potential ugliness on the mound in the AL tonight. The results have been a bit better for Romero lately, but the process hasn’t (7 BB – 7 K last 2 starts).
Oakland @ Kansas City 8:10 ET
B.McCarthy: McCarthy showed his usual great control in his 1st start back, but the command was a bit of an issue as he allowed 3 HR’s (all solo). That was in home haven Chicago, but maybe it’s best to wait another start and make sure that was a fluke.
W.Smith: And yet another pitchers with a K/BB under 2 on the mound Wednesday night. He has seen some improvement in the HR department though, allowing just 1 over his last 4 starts, but that’s about your only positive.
Cleveland @ Los Angeles (AL) 10:05 ET
R.Hernandez: I can see how this is going to cause a problem. There is no Roberto Hernandez in the database. Well there is, but it’s not him. The problem is, Fausto Carmona was not him either and it would be nice if the stats for this one person with 2 names were able to be combined after this start. Hopefully, he’ll just do what he did last year and what Cleveland pitchers have done for most of this year, which is get bombed and find himself out of the rotation, making this name problem go away.
E.Santana: 8 HR’s over his last 4 starts. Wow, the AL pitching is one big joke today.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Los Angeles (AL) @ Pittsburgh 7:05 ET
C.Kershaw: The Clayton Kershaw in Pittsburgh, which is a great park for LHP’s. Looks great, right? He’s been hitting on all cylinders since the break and the Pittsburgh offense has been inconsistent, including being shut out yesterday and twice in their last 4 games, while scoring 15 in between. It’s very close, but you’re looking at an extremely hefty price with some other decent NL options today.
W.Rodriguez: Wandy has failed to impress in his first 3 Pittsburgh starts: 19 IP – 20 H – 10 ER – 4 HR – 7 BB – 11 K – 83 BF. The LA offense has finally gotten hot (5 runs or more in 5 of last 6).
New York (NL) @ Cincinnati 7:10 ET
R.Dickey: After a rough month, the Cy Young version of Dickey has returned (23 IP – 13 H – 3 ER – 1 HR – 6 BB – 27 K – 87 BF). He has a decent matchup today, despite the park (the Reds’ wRC+ last 7 days is skewed by a single 10 run effort vs the Cubs). The price, however, is through the roof again, as it has been for Dickey for most of the season and the Met defense is an actual deterrent for daily fantasy players. They are that bad. No other team is even close.
M.Leake: The Mets have been shut out 3 times in their last 6 games. Leake’s price is down because the results haven’t been good lately, but the performance looks to be a bit better. He was terrible vs SD a few starts ago, no doubt about it, but has gone at least 6 innings with 2 BB’s or less and 5 K’s or more in 3 of his last 4 starts.Additionally, he has only an 11.4 LD% over his last 2. Good Value
San Diego @ Atlanta 7:10 ET
E.Volquez: If you’re looking for a pitcher to load up against today, how about the hot left-handed bats in the Braves lineup vs Volquez: last 3 starts = 10 IP – 15 H – 15 ER – 4 HR – 11 BB – 11 K – 56 BF.
P.Maholm: Maholm has been fantastic for about 2 months now and we’ve ridden with him for some of those starts, but it probably comes to an end now, more due to price than anything else. He’s finally found himself in the upper echelon of the daily fantasy board. He was better than most people gave him credit for for most of the season, but probably not as good as he’s getting credit for now. At least 7 innings with 1 ER or less in 4 of 6 since the break though.
Arizona @ St Louis 8:15 ET
J.Saunders: Not a Joe Saunders fan at all vs the top lefty crushing team in the majors
A.Wainwright: It’s getting close, but Wainwright isn’t out of our price range yet on most sites. He’s been absolutely dominant over the last month (5 starts 36 IP – 9 ER – 0 HR – 5 BB – 35 K) and gets one of the lesser road offenses in the majors. He has only allowed more than 3 ER’s in 1 of the 16 starts where he hasn’t allowed a HR all season and considering that he hasn’t given up any in his last 5, things look pretty good for him. I’d say his journey back from TJ surgery is finally complete. Good Value
Day Game Good Values: Roy Halladay, Mark Rogers, Stephen Strasburg
*Top Values Wednesday: None
Good Values: Mike Leake, Adam Wainwright
Sleeper Alert: None
Top Draft Targets: Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, R.A. Dickey
*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.
We got close to the end before we found anything again, but we got there. I still can’t get over how bad the entire AL looks tonight.
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