Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Analysis Thurs. 8-16-2012
Posted on Aug 16th, 2012 08:37 AM

Matt’s taking a well-deserved day off, but will be back tomorrow just in time for the biggest day of the week on most daily fantasy sports sites. Of course that will all change in a few weeks, when the NFL season finally starts and Sunday becomes the biggest day of the week. We’ll be ramping up our Daily Fantasy Football coverage over the next couple weeks as Week 1 approaches, but for now let’s return to our regularly scheduled starting pitcher analysis program.
A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow us on Twitter @reUPSports.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas @ New York (AL) 1:05 ET
D.Holland: The Yankees offense has been pretty impotent the past two games scoring a total of 5 runs against the Rangers in Yankee Stadium. Holland is on the top half of most of the daily fantasy sports site’s salary structure and not worth the risk. He did shut down the Tigers offense in his last start, but gave up 6 earned runs in the two before that. I’d look elsewhere today.
I.Nova: Nova in Spanish literally means “Don’t go”. When Ivan’s pitching in Yankee Stadium I suggest you ‘No va’ (Don’t go there).
Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 ET
C.Buchholz: Buchholz shut down the Orioles the last time he faced them on June 7th. He pitched 9 shutout innings and only gave up 4 hits while striking out 6 and only walking 1. He’s been pitching extremely well over the past month and hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs. Somehow the Orioles are still in 2nd place and playing solid baseball. Buchholz is at the top of every daily fantasy baseball salary board, so you’ll have to stretch your budget to acquire his services.
C.Tillman: Tillman finally came back down to earth in his last start against the Kansas City Royals. He tends to pitch better on the road and his price is high on a lot of the sites (such as Daily Joust). He’s priced reasonably on the multi-pitcher sites (DraftStreet and Fantasy Feud), so use him there if you like the matchup.
Chicago (AL) @ Toronto 7:07 ET
F.Liriano: Liriano is a ticking time bomb. You now he’ll get lit up and explode at some point, but he’s great until it happens. He looked horrible in his last start against Oakland, but solid in his previous two starts. His strikeouts are down the last few games, but so is his salary. Add in the fact that the Blue Jay’s lineup is in shambles and you have a high risk, high reward situation. I like Liriano a lot on the multi-pitcher sites (DraftStreet and Fantasy Feud). Good Value
A.Laffey: He’s walked more (7) than he struck out (6) over the past three games and gave up 16 runs. The White Sox offense can score runs in bunches, so only use him if necessary. He’s dirt cheap on DraftStreet today ($4,844).
Oakland @ Kansas City 8:10 ET
D.Straily: We’re still working with limited information, but Straily has shown that he has good control in his first two starts (10:2 strike out to walk ratio). He’s dirt cheap on Fantasy Feud ($20,000) and on the bottom of the board on the other daily fantasy sports sites. Top Value (FF)
L.Hochevar: Oakland’s offense has been sputtering lately, unable to put together strong offensive performances in back-to-back games. The same can be said for Hochevar who may never live up to the expectations of a number one overall pick (2006 by the Royals). Oakland scored 6 runs on Hochevar last time they met on June 2nd. He’s cheap on most sites, but not cheap enough.
Tampa Bay @ Los Angeles (AL) 10:05 ET
D.Price: Finally, a starting pitcher I have something positive to say about. What? He’ll be pitching on the road against one of the top offenses in the American League and he’s the most expensive starting pitcher today on most of the sites. Oh well, I tried. If this game was in Tampa Bay he’d be a Good Value, but not on the road.
D.Haren: I’m not sure what happened to Haren in his last start against the Mariners. Hopefully it’s not the lingering back issues that he’s been dealing with most of the season. Prior to that start he looked like his old self, including a start on July 27th against Tampa Bay where he pitched six, 1 run, innings. His salary makes him extremely attractive today against the Rays. If it weren’t for his lingering back issues he’d be a Top Value today. Good Value
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Los Angeles (AL) @ Pittsburgh 4:05 ET
J.Blanton: The chart likes Blanton today against a Pirates offense that has come back down to earth. Blanton will make his third start for the Dodgers who acquired him off of waivers a couple weeks ago. He’s in the top third of the board, in terms of salary, on the daily fantasy sports sites, so most of his upside has been priced out today. If you have extra cap room he is a solid play today.
A.Burnett: A.J. has a great matchup today and he’s been striking out more batters the past month. He’s been great at home this year, but he’s the second highest priced pitcher on most daily fantasy sports sites, so you’ll have to pay top dollar for his services. Good Value
New York (NL) @ Cincinnati 7:10 ET
M.Harvey: After striking out 18 batters in his first two starts, he’s only struck out 8 batters in the last two. He’s also walked 6 batters in his last two starts. The Reds’ offense misses Joey Votto, but it still has some pop in the middle of the order. He’s a bit pricey on Fantasy Feud, but I like his price on DraftStreet. I’m staying away from him on single pitcher sites (Daily Joust, FanDuel, etc.) until I have more data or a better matchup. Sleeper Alert
H.Bailey: The chart is sending mixed signals, but the Mets’ offense has been non-existent lately. Bailey struggles at home otherwise this would be a great matchup. He’s a good value on multi-pitcher sites, but too risky on sites that have one pitcher spot. Good Value (DS, FF)
San Diego @ Atlanta 7:10 ET
J.Marquis: He was untouchable in his last start against the Pirates, but that was the Pirates. I’m not touching him tonight against the Braves.
K.Medlen: Medlen’s transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation has gone smoothly. He has a favorable matchup tonight against the Padres at home. If his success continues the Braves plan on going with a six man rotation for the rest of the month. Our chart likes the matchup and so do I. Top Value (FF) & Good Value (Other sites)
Philadelphia @ Milwaukee 8:10 ET
C.Lee: Is the ageless wonder losing his stuff? Is it just a rough patch that he’ll eventually overcome? These are both great questions that I’m not willing to pay to find out, especially given his high price today on most sites.
M.Estrada: My guts telling me no, but the chart is all green. Let’s dig into this a little more. Estrada has pitched much, much better at home. He got lit up by the Phillies in Philadelphia less than a month ago (4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER), but the Phillies did move some of their key offensive pieces since then. He’s in the middle of the pack on most sites, but dirt cheap on Daily Joust ($209K). Good Value (DJ)
Arizona @ St Louis 8:15 ET
T.Cahill: There’s a lot of red on the chart. No thank you!
K.Lohse: There’s a lot of green on the chart, but he’s the 3rd highest priced pitcher on the daily fantasy sports sites. His Ks have increased, but not enough to justify the salary. It probably has something to do with the abbreviated schedule today.
Miami @ Colorado 8:40 ET
R.Nolasco: Two words: Coors Field.
A.White: Two words: Alex White.
*Top Values Thursday: Straily (FF only), Medlen (FF)
Good Values: Liriano, Haren, Burnett, Bailey (DS, FF), Medlen (Other), Estrada (DJ)
Sleeper Alert: Harvey
Top Draft Targets: Price, Burnett, Lohse, Liriano, Buchholz, Lee
*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.
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