Fantasy Baseball - Starting Pitcher Analysis Fri. 8-17-2012
Posted on Aug 17th, 2012 12:53 PM
As Patrick alluded to yesterday, Friday is the biggest daily fantasy day of the week during baseball season, but we only have a few weeks of that left until the NFL takes over. However, I can see by the pricing that it might be a tough one for starting pitching. So many seem to have high price tags today, but let’s try to find a few good ones.

A full glossary, explaining the chart columns in detail can be found here. Many stats in the chart were compiled using the fangraphs.com database. We’re now referencing Seamheads.com for Park Factors. Feedback and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. What would you like to see in our DFB Starting Pitcher Analysis? Follow me on Twitter @reUPSportsPG.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Baltimore @ Detroit 7:05 ET

T.Hunter: Do you want to trust a guy who’s allowed at least 1 HR in every start except 1 vs the Tigers?

J.Verlander: You gotta love Verlander who comes off a small 2 start hiccup to put up possibly his 2 best starts of the season. Was anybody actually worried? Against the Yankees and in Texas, he only did this: 15 IP – 16 H – 1 ER (3 R) – 0 HR – 1 BB – 22 K – 63 BF). Due to the exorbitant price, however, it looks like Verlander is going to be one of many borderline guys today. If you can find a way to afford him though, by all means...

Boston @ New York (AL) 7:05 ET

F.Morales: This is way too dangerous. For all the good he’s done this year, Morales has struggled with control and allowed 4 HR’s to the Yankees the last time he started against them.

P.Hughes: Hughes has gotten smashed (8.1 IP – 17 H – 11 ER – 2 HR – 1 BB – 7 K – 43 BF) over his last 2 starts. He hasn’t been walking people, which is good, but there’s too much good contact being made against him right now. He threw 176.2 innings (career high) in 2010, but under 100 last year so at 135.2 already this season, he may be tiring.

Texas @ Toronto 7:07 ET

Y.Darvish: Darvish will probably be able to pile up K’s and potentially even limit the damage against an injured and stumbling Toronto team, but he still may walk the ball park and anything can happen when you start putting runners on.

J.Happ: Happ has allowed 8 ER’s in 10 IP as a starter for Toronto, but has only allowed 14 men to reach base through hit or walk (2 HR’s). That goes with 9 K’s and only 1 BB. Add that to a Texas team that has scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 and it looks like you might have a sleeper at a nice price, but the Rangers always have the potential to break out in hitter’s park on any given day, as they did for 10 runs yesterday, making Happ another one of our borderline, but riskier guys.

Chicago (AL) @ Kansas City 8:10 ET

C.Sale: It looks like a few days off was all Sale needed. He’s come back with a vengeance with 18 K’s and no BB’s in 14.2 IP (56 BF) and the velocity is back up too. The price is a little crazy, but he’s in a decent park even though the Royals hit well at home, though they haven’t lately (8 runs in 3 game series vs Oakland) and are 4th worst in the AL vs LHP. Believe it or not, what might push him past Verlander today (in terms of value – I’d probably expect almost the same performance out of both) is the average defense instead of a bad one. A few more plays made might be the difference with all the expected K’s. Good Value

L.Mendoza: All of a sudden, Mendoza has turned into a heavy ground ball guy, which is pretty necessary when you walk a few too many and don’t really strike that many out. That should help against teams with power, like the White Sox, but he’s still nothing special and pretty much carries the peripherals to go along with his 4 to 4.5 ERA.

Cleveland @ Oakland 10:05 ET

Z.McAllister: This is where uER’s can get a little mis-leading. Only 2 runs went towards his ERA 2 starts back, but he allowed 9 total, including 2 HR’s. Maybe he should have been out of the inning, but he still got hit pretty hard after the error. McAllister followed that up with a strong start against Boston, so maybe it was just a bad day and he gets a struggling offense in a great park, but it seems like all or nothing for these A’s. How about 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 9 with 9 runs or more in the other 3?

T.Milone: This should have been a great spot for Milone, at home, where he’s been great for most of the year, despite a SIERA over 4, against a team that lacks strong RHB’s. However, he now becomes borderline after 3 straight starts of 5 ER’s or more, although with a 7.5 K/BB over that period, he’s probably experiencing some negative variance now.

Tampa Bay @ Los Angeles (AL) 10:05 ET

J.Shields: It had seemed that Shields had finally gotten on a roll, combining the double digit K’s with few runs, but then he only strikes out 2 in his last start. For a guy who’s already allowed 19 HR’s, this is a tough lineup despite the favorable park.

J.Weaver: Weaver tied a home season high with 3 ER’s allowed in his last start vs Seattle. You never doubt the run prevention with his elite outfield defense, but your left with an elite price as well, when you’re never sure what you’re going to get to go with it, in terms of K’s. He’s had 5 or less in 13 of his 21 starts, which makes him less attractive in anything more than a straight draft.

Minnesota @ Seattle 10:10 ET

N.Blackburn: Nick Blackburn isn’t the worst pitcher on the board today and he might be in the best spot. Does that make him usable? Probably not, but for one of the few times this season, you might not want to make it a point to necessarily seek out batters against him today.

H.Iwakuma: With the massive difference between home and road Minnesota (wRC+ gap of 34), it seems like a great spot for an under-rated pitcher in a great park…..except that this might not be the case. Iwakuma is not so lowly priced on some sites and he has managed to allow a HR in each of his 7 starts this year and in 10 consecutive appearances overall. No small feat when half of them were in Seattle. Aside from that 13 K performance against Toronto, he’s only eclipsed 4 K’s one other time. He’s still probably worth a shot at his lower price tags, but in overall, he’s probably another borderline guy.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

New York (NL) @ Washington 7:05 ET

J.Santana: The good news here, and there is some, is that he averaged 89 mph for only the 2nd time this season (yes, that’s a high and with his nasty changeup not as much of a problem as it is for some other pitchers). From what I’ve seen and read, the Mets believed it was more rust, leaving too many pitches over the plate, than anything else. The bad news is pretty much everything else with 27 ER’s over his last 13 IP (4 starts). Don’t trust him, but don’t be entirely surprised if he tosses a good one tonight either.

R.Detwiler: You get a struggling team who can’t hit LHP anyway, but then Terry Collins loads up his lineup with his RH bench against a RHP in Cincinnati last night and they rock Homer Bailey. Jason Bay even homered. He’ll likely have a similar lineup out there against the lefty tonight and Detwiler has a total of 7 K’s and 5 BB’s over his last 3 starts. In fact, he hasn’t struck out more than 5 in a game since his 3rd start of the season back in April.

Chicago (NL) @ Cincinnati 7:10 ET

T.Wood: Wood’s home stats are almost more relevant as this is where he pitched, and mostly not well, for the past few years. Wood has been pitching well lately, including his best start of maybe his life last time out against the Reds (7 IP – 1 ER – 8 K – familiarity?), but these Reds smoke LHP, especially at home, so it would probably not be wise to expect similar results this time.

B.Arroyo: The Cubs are the worst road offense in the majors and Arroyo pitched well against them last time, but with Arroyo, you have nearly a lesser version of Weaver in a much worse park. Lots of fly balls with not so many K’s is not the most inspiring. There’s a great chance he pitches well, but not well enough to get you a lot of excess value, but there’s also a chance it’s ugly too.  

Los Angeles (NL) @ Atlanta 7:35 ET

C.Capuano: Capuano has been great lately and though he historically hasn’t been all that good on the road, this is a nice park for him and Braves lean a bit left-handed with the bats. They remain hot with the lumber overall though and the price may leave you asking too much from the lefty.

T.Hanson: It’s almost impossible to confidently analyze Hanson due to potential injury issues. He hasn’t pitched in over 2 weeks.

Arizona @ Houston 8:05 ET

W.Miley: You have the worst hitting team in the majors vs LHP and the worst team overall really, so that should make this easy. Except that Wiley doesn’t. He’s struck out a total of 4 over his last 2 starts and 10 of 18 batted were line drives against him last time out. Amazingly, he only gave up 9 hits to the 22 batters he faced in that game. Somehow, Houston scores just enough to frustrate you at home most times anyway.

D.Keuchel: I really thought Keuchel was going to be an offensive target today, but then it got completely turned around. Whenever you see Closers more expensive than a starter you have to take a look at them and try to find a reason to like them. Arizona has scored exactly 2 runs in each of their last 3 games. Keuchel has been good over his last 2 starts (both at home – 12 IP – 5 ER – 1 BB – 8 K) with his last being the best start of his young career (6 IP – 2 ER – 0 BB – 6 K). He did not allow a HR in those games either. I wouldn’t expect that kind of performance again, but if he has his control issues settled a bit where he can at least strike out more than he walks, he’s worth a shot at that price. Good Value

Philadelphia @ Milwaukee 8:10 ET

V.Worley: Worley and his elbow chips with his inconsistent performances since the world learned of this issue have also been uninspiring. He’s rarely escaped starts with more than 6 IP and less than 3 ER’s.

Y.Gallardo: Gallardo has allowed 1 ER or less in 7 of 13 home starts this season. He’s also allowed 13 of his 18 HR’s at home, which leaves him with an unsustainable 81 LOB%. His peripherals look great when they normalize HR’s, but FIP, which does not, paints a more mortal picture (4.08) at home this year. Considering the quality of opponent, he should be good, possibly even great here, but once again, the price may be too much to risk when there are signs it may not be as good as it looks. The 25 K% at home looks great, but the Phillies K 3rd least often in the majors (17.1%).

Pittsburgh @ St Louis 8:15 ET

J.McDonald: This certainly looks like it could be yet another in a string of recent beatings for McDonald.

J.Westbrook: It’s tough to figure out what Pirates team you’re going to see lately. It’s been all or nothing offensively for them, which makes them look average overall, but 7 runs or more in 4 of their last 9 and 4 or less in the other 5. Westbrook is usually good for tons of ground balls and limiting damage, but not much else.

Miami @ Colorado 8:40 ET

W.LeBlanc: It’s always nice to see a game in Colorado when you’re running late.

J.Francis: Read above. Teams colder than Miami have suddenly found themselves revived in Colorado.

San Francisco @ San Diego 10:05 ET

M.Cain: Cain was very good against Colorado at home last time out and he gets a similar test in Petco tonight, but the above average starts have been so few and far in between since you know when. The price tag remains among the elite though and here’s an odd stat: this is the 1st time Cain’s had average or even slightly worse than league average HR rates (9.8 HR/FB – 1.01 HR/9) in his career.

R.Ohlendorf: Ohlendorf has been such a different pitcher in Petco. How about 4.25 K/BB without a single HR at home in 20.2 IP as opposed to 1.11 K/BB with 6 HR in 25.2 road innings. The loss of Cabrera is going to sting this team even though they got Sandoval back this week. The basement price makes Ohlendorf a reasonable bet tonight. Thank God we’re done before I have a chance to take that last sentence back. Sleeper Alert

*Top Values Friday: None

Good Values: Dallas Keuchel, Chris Sale

Sleeper Alert: Ross Ohlendorf

Top Draft Targets: Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, Yovani Gallardo

*Players are priced differently across sites. A top value on one site may not be so on another. All values are a consensus generalization.

Remember, your borderlines today are Verlander, Happ, Milone, Iwakuma, Arroyo.  

 
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