In my Bankroll Management in Daily Fantasy Sports article I covered the key components of bankroll management and a few bankroll management strategies. It was an introduction, but by no means an exhaustive piece on the topic of bankroll management. In this follow-up article I’m going to dig deeper into the bankroll strategy I employ and forecast my potential winnings over the rest of the baseball season!

In our first bankroll management article we discussed three potential strategies:

                (1) Daily Play in Low Variance Contests

                (2) Weekly Play in High Variance Contests

                (3) Hybrid Approach

I play on a regular basis, typically four or five days a week during the baseball season, so I use the hybrid approach. Because I play on a daily basis, I primarily enter low variance (H2H, 50/50, and Solo) contests and sprinkle in a few high variance (GPPs and SSTs) contests when I’m winning.

I don’t put more than 10% of my bankroll in play on any given day during the MLB season because of its length and the difficulty forecasting individual player’s performance each day. Over time I believe I have an edge, but I realize I can be beat on any given day. I also realize that there are thousands and thousands of potential daily fantasy baseball lineup combinations each day and the best lineup on paper can lose. Daily Fantasy Baseball contests only last one day, but ultimately your success will depend on your performance over the next four months.

The key to winning long term in daily fantasy sports is developing a solid bankroll management strategy and sticking to it. If you decide that you should only have 10% of your bankroll in play on a given day you need to stick to that decision. Don’t enter a few extra contests one day because you think you have the best lineup. It’s a trap! If you’re good at daily fantasy sports you’ll have a ‘good’ lineup every day, so stick to your 10% bankroll cap each and every day. This is one of the toughest things to do and I struggle with it occasionally.

Everybody wants to win a lot of money as quick as possible and it’s tempting to go all out and enter as many contests as possible. Sure, you could get lucky and double up a few times, but what happens after you double your bankroll, keep putting it all on the line, and have a bad day? You’re back to square one. It’s not a sustainable strategy, especially during a 162 game season.

It might not be a sexy strategy and it requires discipline, but slow and steady growth is the best way to build your daily fantasy sports bankroll. I’ve learned this the hard way a few times over the past year. After winning all my contests a couple days in a row I would get a little cocky and start playing with a higher percentage of my bankroll. Eventually I ran cold and ended up back where I started.

Let’s take a look at a few scenarios to see how much money I can win if I successfully grow my bankroll at a slow and steady pace. For this example we’ll assume my starting bankroll is $400, I play 10% of my bankroll 5 days a week in contests with a 10% rake, and win 65% of the contests. There’s approximately four months left in the baseball season, so we’ll forecast my bankroll growth for the next four months. Each week I’ll adjust my total buy-in amount to account for my bankroll growth from the previous week. In Week 1, I’ll play $40 each day for the first 5 days.

If I’m able to maintain a win rate of 65% my bankroll would grow $111 in the first month, $197 in the second month, $273 in the third month, and $379 in the fourth month. My total profit for the four months would be $940. If my bankroll, % in play, days played, or win rate increased my profit would as well! Let’s take a look at the same scenario for a variety of win rates.